从turnover这里可以看出来什么吗？

问题如下：

Richard Seal manages his own investment portfolio and meets with Michelle Beech, an investment advisor. Richard tells Beech that his equity portfolio has outperformed and he is certain it would continue to outperform under his management. However, demands on his time have increased and he now needs some assistance.

Beech calculates the performance of Richard’s self-managed equity portfolio and compares the results with the median active equity mutual fund and a passive equity index fund in Exhibit 1. Beech concludes that Richard has overconfidence bias.

Exhibit 1 Selected Portfolio Characteristics

Support Beech’s conclusion with two reasons.

选项：

解释：

Overconfidence bias occurs when people demonstrate unwarranted faith in their own abilities. Richard exhibits this in two ways:

Richard’s belief that his outperformance would continue despite not outperforming in the past indicates overconfidence. This is an example of overconfidence bias that occurs when the probabilities assigned to outcomes are too high because individuals are too certain of their judgments.

Richard maintains a poorly diversified portfolio, with 50% of total assets held in 5 companies, versus the more diversified mutual fund and index funds. When estimating the future value of a stock, investors with overconfidence bias will incorporate too little variation – using a narrower range of expected payoffs and a lower standard deviation of returns – than justified based on historical results and fundamental analysis. Such an investor may underestimate the risks, particularly downside risks, and consequently hold a poorly diversified portfolio.