NO.PZ202206070100000304
问题如下：
The most appropriate economic modeling approach that Kumar should suggest is:
选项：
A.a checklist approach.
B.econometric modeling.
C.leading economic indicator-based analysis.
解释：
Solution
C is correct. Leading indicator-based analysis is the simplest forecasting approach because it requires following only a limited number of variables. Leading economic indicators may provide information about upcoming changes in economic activity, inflation, interest rates and security prices.
A is incorrect. Checklist assessments are time consuming because they require looking at the widest possible range of data and may require subjective judgment.
B is incorrect. Econometric models may be difficult to construct, estimate and interpret if they contain more than a few variables, yet more variables may be needed to make a model more realistic.
题目考察的是预测经济的三类方法。领先指标的分析是最简单的预测方法，因为它只需要遵循有限的变量。领先经济指标可能提供关于经济活动、通货膨胀、利率和证券价格即将发生变化的信息。所以C选项正确。
A是不正确的。检查表评估法是耗时的，因为这需要查看尽可能广泛的数据，可能也需要一定主观判断。
B是不正确的。如果计量经济学模型包含变量过多，那么它可能难以构建、估计和解释。然而，为了使模型能顺利构建，往往又需要更多的变量。
这个方法能预计路径吗？