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Sofia nice · 2023年07月26日

equity

  1. CFA I
  2. Economics Analysis

NO.PZ2021052601000015

问题如下：

Which of the following is most likely to increase after an increase in aggregate real personal income?

选项：

A.Equity prices B.Building permits for new private housing units C.The ratio of consumer installment debt to income

解释：

C is correct. Aggregate real personal income is a coincident indicator of the business cycle, and the ratio of consumer installment debt to income is a lagging indicator. Increases in the ratio of consumer installment debt follow increases in average aggregate income during the typical business cycle.

个人实际收入总额是景气周期的同步指标，而消费者分期付款债务与收入的比率则是滞后性指标。在典型的商业周期中，消费者分期付款债务比率的增加伴随着平均总收入的增加。


虽然股票市场是前瞻性的，但是之前只是预期增长，个人收入增多之后，散户进入股市，不是又能推高价格吗？

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笛子_品职助教 · 2023年07月27日

嗨，努力学习的PZer你好：


虽然股票市场是前瞻性的，但是之前只是预期增长，个人收入增多之后，散户进入股市，不是又能推高价格吗？

个人收入增多后，并不一定会进入股市，进不进入股市，还是看预期。

如果个人收入增多，股市预期好，会进入股市，推高价格。

如果个人收入增多，股市预期不好，资金就不会进入股市，另可存银行，增加储蓄。

总之，个人收入增加，与股市价格上涨，并没有必然的关系。


同学注意，本题的重点是经济各个指标的领先和滞后。收入是经济的同步指标，收入增加后能增加什么，题目要求我们选一个经济的滞后指标。而equity Pirce是领先指标，因此不选。

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