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jojo · 2023年07月25日

两种不同的方法的值应该一样？

  1. CFA II
  2. Equity

NO.PZ2018103102000105

问题如下：

Matt is evaluating Company M by using the multistage residual income model. He has forecasted that residual income per share will be constant from year 3 into perpetuity and the short-term ROE is higher than the long-term ROE. He has also estimated the earnings and dividends for the following three years in the following table. What`s the intrinsic value of Company M?

选项：

A.

$27.18

B.

$48.91

C.

$55.43

解释：

C is correct.

考点：Multistage Residual Income Valuation

解析：先计算出每一年的BV

BV1 = BV0 + EPS - Dividends per share = 28.25 + 6.5 - 1.75 = $33，同理可得BV2 = $38.19，BV3 = $43.15

再计算出每一年的RI

RI1 = EPS1 – re*B0 = 6.50-10.9%*28.25 = $3.42，同理可得RI2 = $4.22，RI3 = $2.77

终值的现值:

PV=RI3r×(1+r)3=2.770.109×1.1093=18.63PV=\frac{RI_3}{r\times\left(1+r\right)^3}=\frac{2.77}{0.109\times1.109^3}=18.63

V0=28.25+3.421.109+4.221.1092+2.771.1093+18.63=55.43V_0=28.25+\frac{3.42}{1.109}+\frac{4.22}{1.109^2}+\frac{2.77}{1.109^3}+18.63=55.43

我在纸上写了两个问题，烦请老师回答：



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王园圆_品职助教 · 2023年07月25日

同学你好，问题1，不能——“He has forecasted that residual income per share will be constant from year 3 into perpetuity”题目都说了是第三年开始才进入RI永续不变阶段的，RI２不等于RI3不是很正常嘛，而且题目说的是RI３进入永续增长，那理论上从RI3开始折现也可以啊，你这里的因果关系本身不成立

问题2，你可以这么理解的，对应到本题，就是RI3=RI4=RI5=......所以RI３，RI４可以互相替代，无论是从RI3折现到PVRI２来计算V０还是从RI4折现到PVRI3来计算V0其实都可以，只要分清楚每一期的现金流到底有多少就可以了

例如从RI3计算的话，就是PVRI2和RI２一起折现２年，加上RI1折现一年来计算V

而从RI４计算的话，就是PVRI３和RI3一起折现3年，RI2折现2年，加上RI１折现１年来计算V

两种方法最后的结果一定是一样的

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2024-11-12 18:47 1 · 回答

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