NO.PZ2022122601000046
问题如下：
Board member Harold Melson notes he recently read an article on psychological traps related to making accurate and unbiased forecasts. He asks O’Reilly to inform the board about the anchoring trap and the confirming evidence trap. O’Reilly offers the following explanation:
“The anchoring trap is the tendency for forecasts to be overly influenced by the memory of catastrophic or dramatic past events that are anchored in a person’s memory. The confirming evidence trap is the bias that leads individuals to give greater weight to information that supports a preferred viewpoint than to evidence that contradicts it.”
Is O’Reilly’s explanation of the anchoring trap most likely correct? (2018 mock PM)
选项：
A.No, because the anchoring trap is the tendency for the mind to give a disproportionate weight to the first information it receives on a topic
B. Yes.
C.No, because the anchoring trap is the tendency to temper forecasts so that they do not appear extreme
解释：
Correct Answer: A
A is correct. O’Reilly’s explanation of the anchoring trap is incorrect. The anchoring trap is the tendency of the mind to give disproportionate weight to the first information it receives on a topic. Initial impressions, estimates, or data anchor subsequent thoughts and judgments.
B is incorrect. O’Reilly’s statement regarding the anchoring trap is incorrect. This is a description of the recallability trap.
C is incorrect. Although O’Reilly’s statement regarding the anchoring trap is incorrect, this is a description of the prudence trap.
中文解析：
A正确。奥莱利对锚定陷阱的解释是不正确的。锚定陷阱是指大脑倾向于给它收到的关于某个话题的第一个信息不成比例的权重。最初的印象、估计或数据决定了随后的想法和判断。
B不正确。奥莱利关于锚定陷阱的说法是不正确的。这是对可回忆性陷阱的描述。
C选项不正确。虽然奥莱利关于锚定陷阱的陈述是不正确的，但这是对谨慎陷阱的描述。
请问prudence bias是什么？
