NO.PZ2023041004000031
问题如下：
Silverman asks the group to provide some characteristics of the three valuation methods. Lin responds, “the DCF method takes into account cash flows that are relevant to investors and incorporates the cyclical nature of the real estate market. The cost approach works best for newer properties, whereas the sales comparison approach provides reliable value estimates in an active real estate market in which there are numerous transactions.”In her response to Silverman regarding the characteristics of the three valuation approaches, Lin is least likely correct with respect to the:选项：
A.DCF approach. B.sales comparison approach. C.cost approach.解释：
Although Lin is correct that the DCF method takes into account the cash flows that investors care about, she is not correct in stating that DCF takes into account the cyclical nature of the real estate market.C is incorrect. Lin is correct about the cost approach.B is incorrect. Lin is correct about the sales comparison approach.the DCF method takes into account cash flows that are relevant to investors and incorporates the cyclical nature of the real estate market。
这句话我当时做的时候认为是对的。
1、DCF method takes into account cash flows that are relevant to investors这句是对的，因为DCF有很多年的现金流折现。
2、incorporates the cyclical nature of the real estate market。这句话我当时认为就是对takes into account cash flows 的体现，因为如果房地产有周期，比如近期处于快要供过于求的情况，那么用DCM就不行，因为第一年的NOI没有代表性，未来的NOI会越来越低，那直接用going in cap rate估值就不准。所以需要测算未来周期内的NOI，然后用合适的re来折现。终值还可以体现一个房地产周期的结束。
所以我选了B。B说cost方法适用于新房子，因为我记得cost方法要减折旧，所以对老房子会更实用，折旧无非就是直线折旧和加速折旧，非常好算；而且老房子的g不好确定，NOI也不一定稳定，要装修之类的（这些情况很多其他题目里面都会描述）。而新房子，可以直接用DCM，NOI确定（因为有租约），cap rate也好确定（很容易找到camparable）
我这个思路主要问题在哪里？
