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erin_hi1990 · 2023年07月02日

这里的D0为啥不用乘以（1+g）?

  1. CFA II
  2. Equity

NO.PZ2023032701000025

问题如下：

A mid-sized US company in the utilities sector with a required rate of return of 10%. Peters and her team believe that because of a recent restructuring, the company is unlikely to pay dividends for the next three years. However, the team expects XYZ to pay an annual dividend of US$1.72 per share beginning four years from now. Thereafter, the dividend is expected to grow indefinitely at 4% even though the current price implies a growth rate of 6% during this same period.

If the team uses the dividend discount model, the current intrinsic value of Company XYZ stock would be closest to:

选项：

A.

US$19.58

B.

US$20.36

C.

US$21.54

解释：

The current value of XYZ stock would be calculated as follows:

V0 = [P3/(1 + r)3], where P3 = D4/(r – g).

Given D4 = 1.72, r = 10%, and g = 4%,

V0 = [1.72/(0.10 – 0.04)]/(1.10)3 = US$21.54.

这里的D0为啥不用乘以（1+g）即1.04?

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2 个答案

王园圆_品职助教 · 2023年08月01日

同学你好，你再仔细看下这句话“ the company is unlikely to pay dividends for the next three years.”这里已经先交代了，公司未来3年都不会分红，也就是D1到D3都是0

另外，分红默认都是发生在年末的，所以D4肯定是第四年年末的分红，而不是第四年年初，所以1.72是第4年年末的分红，1.72*1.04是指第5年的分红，所以运用GGM的话，折现是到第四年的年末，也就是1.72*1.04/0.06 是计算的第4年年末的V4，但是因为第4年年末还有一笔本来的分红D4，所以要计算V0的话，需要把V4和D4一起折现到0时刻才能得到V0

王园圆_品职助教 · 2023年07月02日

同学你好，首先，这里不是D0，而是D4——“the team expects XYZ to pay an annual dividend of US$1.72 per share beginning four years from now.”

其次，你也可以用D4*（1+g)/(r-g)来计算终值的，其本质和解析式一样的

解析认为从第四年年末进入永续增长，所以用D4计算P3的终值，然后将P3直接折现到0时刻即可求V

而你如果用D4*（1+g)/(r-g)来计算终值,那得到的就是P4的终值。注意此时在第四年年末还有D4这笔现金流

所以最后V的计算就是用P4和D4一起折现4年到0时刻，一样可以计算，且答案一定是和解析的答案一致的，同学可以自己试一下

Carolyne · 2023年08月01日

你好， 我认为 题目意思，beginning four years from now. Thereafter 题目应该是说在第四年年初有1.72的分红，从第四年年初以后进入永续增长。1.72*1.04/0.06 应该是算的第三年年末的终值。我无法理解解析，求教。

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NO.PZ2023032701000025问题如下 A misizeUS company in the utilities sector with a requirerate of return of 10%. Peters anher tebelieve thbecause of a recent restructuring, the company is unlikely to pvin for the next three years. However, the teexpects XYZ to pannuvinof US$1.72 per share beginning four years from now. Thereafter, the vinis expecteto grow infinitely 4% even though the current priimplies a growth rate of 6% ring this same perioIf the teuses the vinscount mol, the current intrinsic value of Company XYZ stowoulclosest to: A.US$19.58B.US$20.36C.US$21.54 The current value of XYZ stowoulcalculatefollows:V0 = [P3/(1 + r)3], where P3 = /(r – g).Given = 1.72, r = 10%, ang = 4%,V0 = [1.72/(0.10 – 0.04)]/(1.10)3 = US$21.54. 为什么不算V4=1.72*1.04/(0.1-0.04)，然后折回四年，所以选B？

2024-11-10 23:21 1 · 回答

NO.PZ2023032701000025 问题如下 A misizeUS company in the utilities sector with a requirerate of return of 10%. Peters anher tebelieve thbecause of a recent restructuring, the company is unlikely to pvin for the next three years. However, the teexpects XYZ to pannuvinof US$1.72 per share beginning four years from now. Thereafter, the vinis expecteto grow infinitely 4% even though the current priimplies a growth rate of 6% ring this same perioIf the teuses the vinscount mol, the current intrinsic value of Company XYZ stowoulclosest to: A.US$19.58 B.US$20.36 C.US$21.54 The current value of XYZ stowoulcalculatefollows:V0 = [P3/(1 + r)3], where P3 = /(r – g).Given = 1.72, r = 10%, ang = 4%,V0 = [1.72/(0.10 – 0.04)]/(1.10)3 = US$21.54. 请问条件“Implieg 6%”对解题是不是无用的呢？

2023-10-19 16:49 1 · 回答