NO.PZ201511190100000202
问题如下：
Discuss how Gerber displayed overconfidence bias and cite one example to support this statement. Distinguish between the availability bias and the overconfidence bias.
解释：
Gerber displayed overconfidence bias by having too much faith in his “superior knowledge of the health care industry.” Overconfidence bias and the related illusion of knowledge bias result when individuals overestimate their knowledge levels and abilities. Overconfidence bias has aspects of both cognitive and emotional errors but is classified as emotional because the emotional aspect dominates. Emotional biases, which stem from impulse or intuition, may be considered to result from reasoning influenced by feelings. These biases are difficult to correct.
Overconfidence is primarily an emotional bias and is thus different from availability bias which is an information-processing bias and a cognitive error. Cognitive errors result from faulty reasoning and analysis. The individual may be attempting to follow a rational decision-making process but fails to do so because of cognitive errors. Gerber perceives the foundation’s investment allocation and stock selection as appropriate, and does not process all of the information available to him. He notes that ABC should be monitored closely because of the fact he is not familiar with startup companies; however, he does not process information that goes beyond his knowledge base to see that the investment itself is problematic. Although the overconfidence and availability biases are clearly related, Gerber can make better investment decisions by focusing on the cognitive error aspects of his behavior. Cognitive biases are easier to correct for than emotional biases, which are based on how people feel.
he decides it is appropriate based on Ludwigs’ involvement and their past success with similar ventures. 如题。
