NO.PZ2022120702000054
问题如下：
J Justin Deyzak is conducting a review of the food industry and came comes across two companieswhich are interesting investment opportunities. Because he is aware that agricultural companies can be highly exposed to climate risk, he investigates Company A and Company B’s business models in order to assess those risks. Below is the summary of his findings.
In what way is Justin least likely to conduct scenario testing to refine his assessment of the companies’ climate risk?
选项：
A.Justin could impose a shadow carbon tax in his financial model to quantify any potential impact on the companies' margins. B.Justin could obtain information on how a 2.1 degree Celsius change would impact agricultural output in the countries to which both companies are exposed and include that in the financial model. C.Justin could quantify the short-term impact of extreme weather events on both companies' preparedness for physical disruptions in his financial model D.Justin could incorporate the impact of climate change and risk purely on the socio- economic conditions of workers in the affected regions.解释：
本题问的是Justin最不可能通过何种方式进行场景测试来完善他对公司气候风险的评估。
A选项Justin可以在他的财务模型中征收影子碳税，以量化对企业利润率的潜在影响。B选项Justin可以获得关于2.1摄氏度的变化将如何影响农业产量的信息，并将其纳入金融模型。C选项Justin可以在他的财务模型中量化极端天气事件对两家公司应对物理破坏的短期影响。A,B,C三种方法均可以执行。
D选项Justin可以将气候变化的影响和风险纯粹纳入受影响地区工人的社会经济条件。情景分析不是把气候变化的影响纳入工人的社会经济条件，看对工人的影响，而是看对公司财务表现的影响，因此选择D选项。
可以简单的理解情景分析就是将重大的变量纳入模型，去看对公司财务表现的影响对不？还想问下老师，情景分析一定会用到模型吗？另外，我记得情景分析一定是bottom up不，可不可以top down去研究具体的变量是由于哪些公司贡献的最多？
