问题如下图：
选项：
A. 
B. 
C. 
解释：
看了别人的问题和给出的答案，无论如何都想不通怎么只折两次。
题目说预测未来3年的ROE比较高，从第四年开始ROE回归正常。也就是说用永续年金模式算出来的RI应该是在第三年年末的terminal value，从第三年年末折到第2年年末，第1年年末，再到第0时刻，怎么想都应该是折3次。
同时也应该把第三年EPS-Re*BV算出来的RI加回来吧
元素周期膘 · 2018年05月17日
* 问题详情，请 查看题干
问题如下图：
选项：
A.
B.
C.
解释：
看了别人的问题和给出的答案，无论如何都想不通怎么只折两次。
题目说预测未来3年的ROE比较高，从第四年开始ROE回归正常。也就是说用永续年金模式算出来的RI应该是在第三年年末的terminal value，从第三年年末折到第2年年末，第1年年末，再到第0时刻，怎么想都应该是折3次。
同时也应该把第三年EPS-Re*BV算出来的RI加回来吧
在第三年RI开始保持稳定，那为什么不拿第二年的RI来计算终值？不是第二年末切的一刀么……真的混乱了。
这道题就是课上的例题，讲义236页，为何这样且可以去听下李老师的讲解。
NO.PZ201710200100000408 问题如下 8. Baseon Exhibits 2 an3 anthe multistage RI mol, Castovshoulestimate the intrinsic value of TTto closest to: A.€54.88. B.€83.01. C.€85.71. C is correct.Resiincome per share for the next three years is calculatefollows.Because Castovforecasts thresiincome per share will constant into perpetuity, equto Ye3 resiincome per share, the present value of the terminvalue is calculateusing a persistenfactor of 1.Present value of terminvalue = 8.54−(0.087×58.25)(1+0.087−1)(1+0.087)2\frac{8.54-(0.087\times58.25)}{(1+0.087-1)(1+0.087)^2}(1+0.087−1)(1+0.087)28.54−(0.087×58.25)= 3.47(0.087)(1.087)2\frac{3.47}{ ( 0.087 ) ( 1.087 ) ^2}(0.087)(1.087)23.47 =33.78 So, the intrinsic value of TTis then calculatefollows.V0=\frac{45.25+3.88/1.087+3.68/(1.087)^2+33.78}=85.71 如题，谢谢！
NO.PZ201710200100000408 问题如下 8. Baseon Exhibits 2 an3 anthe multistage RI mol, Castovshoulestimate the intrinsic value of TTto closest to: A.€54.88. B.€83.01. C.€85.71. C is correct.Resiincome per share for the next three years is calculatefollows.Because Castovforecasts thresiincome per share will constant into perpetuity, equto Ye3 resiincome per share, the present value of the terminvalue is calculateusing a persistenfactor of 1.Present value of terminvalue = 8.54−(0.087×58.25)(1+0.087−1)(1+0.087)2\frac{8.54-(0.087\times58.25)}{(1+0.087-1)(1+0.087)^2}(1+0.087−1)(1+0.087)28.54−(0.087×58.25)= 3.47(0.087)(1.087)2\frac{3.47}{ ( 0.087 ) ( 1.087 ) ^2}(0.087)(1.087)23.47 =33.78 So, the intrinsic value of TTis then calculatefollows.V0=\frac{45.25+3.88/1.087+3.68/(1.087)^2+33.78}=85.71 题目正文写的persistenfactor 是0.1， 解题里用的是1？
NO.PZ201710200100000408 问题如下 8. Baseon Exhibits 2 an3 anthe multistage RI mol, Castovshoulestimate the intrinsic value of TTto closest to: A.€54.88. B.€83.01. C.€85.71. C is correct.Resiincome per share for the next three years is calculatefollows.Because Castovforecasts thresiincome per share will constant into perpetuity, equto Ye3 resiincome per share, the present value of the terminvalue is calculateusing a persistenfactor of 1.Present value of terminvalue = 8.54−(0.087×58.25)(1+0.087−1)(1+0.087)2\frac{8.54-(0.087\times58.25)}{(1+0.087-1)(1+0.087)^2}(1+0.087−1)(1+0.087)28.54−(0.087×58.25)= 3.47(0.087)(1.087)2\frac{3.47}{ ( 0.087 ) ( 1.087 ) ^2}(0.087)(1.087)23.47 =33.78 So, the intrinsic value of TTis then calculatefollows.V0=\frac{45.25+3.88/1.087+3.68/(1.087)^2+33.78}=85.71 12%这个数据用不到吗？
NO.PZ201710200100000408 问题如下 8. Baseon Exhibits 2 an3 anthe multistage RI mol, Castovshoulestimate the intrinsic value of TTto closest to: A.€54.88. B.€83.01. C.€85.71. C is correct.Resiincome per share for the next three years is calculatefollows.Because Castovforecasts thresiincome per share will constant into perpetuity, equto Ye3 resiincome per share, the present value of the terminvalue is calculateusing a persistenfactor of 1.Present value of terminvalue = 8.54−(0.087×58.25)(1+0.087−1)(1+0.087)2\frac{8.54-(0.087\times58.25)}{(1+0.087-1)(1+0.087)^2}(1+0.087−1)(1+0.087)28.54−(0.087×58.25)= 3.47(0.087)(1.087)2\frac{3.47}{ ( 0.087 ) ( 1.087 ) ^2}(0.087)(1.087)23.47 =33.78 So, the intrinsic value of TTis then calculatefollows.V0=\frac{45.25+3.88/1.087+3.68/(1.087)^2+33.78}=85.71 1、方法二 RI4=RI3 = 3.47， PVRI' =3.47/0.087 =39.8851V0 = + RI1/(1+r) + RI2/(1+r)^2 + RI3/(1+r)^3+PVRI'/(1+r)^3 = 45.25 + 3.88/1.087 + 3.68/1.087^2 + 3.47/1.097^3 + 39.8851/1.097^3 =85.71第三年和以后的分母应该是1.087^3，而不是1.097^3。对吗？2 如何从题干中判断w=1？3 是否ROE恒定，RI就恒定？4 计算RI3，可否用(ROE-RE)*BV2，ROE=12%
NO.PZ201710200100000408 问题如下 8. Baseon Exhibits 2 an3 anthe multistage RI mol, Castovshoulestimate the intrinsic value of TTto closest to: A.€54.88. B.€83.01. C.€85.71. C is correct.Resiincome per share for the next three years is calculatefollows.Because Castovforecasts thresiincome per share will constant into perpetuity, equto Ye3 resiincome per share, the present value of the terminvalue is calculateusing a persistenfactor of 1.Present value of terminvalue = 8.54−(0.087×58.25)(1+0.087−1)(1+0.087)2\frac{8.54-(0.087\times58.25)}{(1+0.087-1)(1+0.087)^2}(1+0.087−1)(1+0.087)28.54−(0.087×58.25)= 3.47(0.087)(1.087)2\frac{3.47}{ ( 0.087 ) ( 1.087 ) ^2}(0.087)(1.087)23.47 =33.78 So, the intrinsic value of TTis then calculatefollows.V0=\frac{45.25+3.88/1.087+3.68/(1.087)^2+33.78}=85.71 我是像李老师在第三年划一刀，Yr 1 , 2, 3 的 bookvalue 分别是51.61， 58.25， 65.2；用single stage 计算出Yr 3以后未来 的RI [ROE （12%） - cost of equity （8.7%) ] *BV@Yr 3 (65.2) ➗re- g (此处因为已知constant growth, g=0) , 计算得 24.73 ； 再与第三年得RI 3.47相加 最后和前两年得一起折现，看了答案我知道应该i用永续公式，但不知道我在single stage 那里出了什么错？
