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Carina9999 · 2023年05月30日

到底如何理解呢?

* 问题详情,请 查看题干

NO.PZ202105270100000502

问题如下:

Based on expectations for changes in integration with the global market, all else being equal, the Singer–Terhaar model implies that Bader should shift capital from Country A to:

选项:

A.only Country B. B.only Country C. C.both Countries B and C.

解释:

B is correct.

Bader expects the equity market in Country C (an emerging market) to become more fully integrated with the global market while Country A (a developed market) remains highly integrated. All else being equal, the Singer– Terhaar model implies that when a market becomes more globally integrated (segmented), its required return should decline (rise). As prices adjust to a lower (higher) required return, the market should deliver an even higher (lower) return than was previously expected or required by the market. Therefore, the allocation to markets that are moving toward integration should be increased. If a market is moving toward integration, its increased allocation will come at the expense of markets that are already highly integrated. This will typically entail a shift from developed markets to emerging markets.

Bader预计,C国(新兴市场)的股票市场将与全球市场更加全面地融合,而A国(发达市场)的股票市场仍将高度融合。在其他条件相同的情况下,Singer - Terhaar模型表明,当一个市场变得更加全球一体化(细分)时,其所需回报应该下降(上升)。当价格调整到一个更低(更高)的要求回报时,市场应该提供比先前预期或市场要求更高(更低)的回报。因此,应该增加对正在走向一体化的市场的配置。如果一个市场正在走向一体化,其配置的增加将以已经高度一体化的市场为代价。这需要从发达市场转向新兴市场。


按照何老师讲的内容,越分散要求的收益率越高,越整合要求的收益率月底。

按照这个思路,应该选择去分散的国家呀,这样得到的回报率是高的。


但是我看助教的一些解释又是从价格的角度来考虑,同时提到了事前和事后,我觉得解释的比较含糊,是依据答案来解释,而不是根据题目本身。


麻烦助教从题目本身出发,结合这个知识点系统的帮我梳理一下吧,谢谢。

1 个答案
已采纳答案

笛子_品职助教 · 2023年05月31日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


Hello,亲爱的同学!


先跟着老师的思路走一遍,然后再看同学的思路哈!


我们看到题目给的条件:

Three of the markets under consideration are located in Country A (developed market), Country B (emerging market), and Country C (emerging market). Bader projects that in relation to the global market, the equity market in Country A will remain highly integrated, the equity market in Country B will become more segmented, and the equity market in Country C will become more fully integrated.


考虑中的三个市场分别位于A国(发达市场)、B国(新兴市场)和C国(新兴国家)。Bader预计,就全球市场而言,A国的股票市场将保持高度一体化,B国的股票市将变得更加分割,C国的股票将变得更加全面一体化。


我们看到,B和C都是emerging国家。这两个国家现在的收益率都比A国要高。因此现在这笔投资下去后,成本已经锁定了,未来收益如何,不是看现在的required return,而要看未来required return的变动,如果未来required return比现在低,就会有更高的投资收益。


举个例子,现在B和C的required return都会10%。意味着,如果B和C的将来,和现在是一样的,这两个国家都会获得10%的投资收益。

因为B国会变得更加分割,也就是B国的未来,比现在更差了,那么预计B国未来的required return 会从现在的10%提高到15%。B国股价将下跌。最终,B国的投资回报率会低于10%。


因为C国会变得更加一体化,也就是C国的未来,比现在更好了,那么预计C国未来的required return 会从现在的10%降低到5%。国股价将上涨。最终,C国投资收益率会高于10%。


因此我们要投资C国。


回过头看同学的思路


按照何老师讲的内容,越分散要求的收益率越高,越整合要求的收益率月底。

理解正确。


按照这个思路,应该选择去分散的国家呀,这样得到的回报率是高的。

注意,现在B和C,都是分散的国家,它们目前的required return 并没有太大区别,要看未来required return的变动。

两个国家起步一样。一个变得越来越好,一个变得越来越差。应该投资变得越来越好的国家。


同学也可以结合债券的知识来理解。

B债券和C债券,今天都是10%收益率。

预期1年后B债券因为信用情况越来越差,收益率是15%。

预期1年后,C债券因为信用变好,收益率是5%。

那么今天我们要投资C债券而不是B债券。

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努力的时光都是限量版,加油!

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