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vvwa2022 · 2023年05月18日

货币危机的信号

NO.PZ2023041102000028

问题如下:

Daltonia is a medium sized developing country. Naim Birol, Minister of Finance for Daltonia, wants to be on the lookout for situations which might trigger a currency crisis. He and his colleague Pamuk discuss recent economic developments that might provide potential warning signs.Ÿ

Birol: “Moving our currency to a floating exchange rate has reduced our susceptibility to a currency crisis.”Ÿ

Pamuk: “Banking crises often precede currency crises, but our banking sector has grown and strengthened substantially by offering foreign denominated savings accounts to foreign investors and lending those funds for domestic infrastructure investments.”Ÿ

Pamuk: “I’m concerned that the ratio of exports to imports has been increasing recently and the ratio of M2 to bank reserves has been falling.”

Which of the recent economic developments discussed by Birol and Pamuk is most likely to lead to a currency crisis?

选项:

A.The banking sector B.The exchange rate system C.The trend in terms of trade and monetary ratios

解释:

A is correct. Pamuk’s description of growth in the banking sector coupled with short-term funding denominated in foreign currency can lead to a currency crisis.

B is incorrect.Countries with fixed or partially fixed exchange rates are more susceptible.

C is incorrect.Broad measures of money such as M2 are likely to be rising (not falling) just prior to a crisis.

Birol: “Moving our currency to a floating exchange rate has reduced our susceptibility to a currency crisis.”Ÿ——这句话为啥不是指当前该国家的汇率是固定的?所以move当前汇率to浮动的,使得他们对货币危机的怀疑变少?

Pamuk: “Banking crises often precede currency crises, but our banking sector has grown and strengthened substantially by offering foreign denominated savings accounts to foreign investors and lending those funds for domestic infrastructure investments.”Ÿ 这句话有点没理解是什么意思?

1 个答案
已采纳答案

笛子_品职助教 · 2023年05月19日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


Birol: “Moving our currency to a floating exchange rate has reduced our susceptibility to a currency crisis.”Ÿ——这句话为啥不是指当前该国家的汇率是固定的?所以move当前汇率to浮动的,使得他们对货币危机的怀疑变少?


这句话的意思是,现在的汇率是固定汇率制,更容易受到危机影响,如果是浮动汇率制,就不容易受到危机的影响。

因为本题要选择,容易导致危机的选项。

把固定汇率制转成浮动汇率制,就不容易导致危机了。

因此不选A。


Pamuk: “Banking crises often precede currency crises, but our banking sector has grown and strengthened substantially by offering foreign denominated savings accounts to foreign investors and lending those funds for domestic infrastructure investments.”Ÿ 这句话有点没理解是什么意思?

这句话的意思是说,外国人在本国有很多的储蓄。这么理解就可以了。

我们分析一下:这些外国人的储蓄,对于本国来说属于外债。因为一旦外国人要把储蓄拿回他们自己的母国,银行储蓄就会大量流失,出现危机。所以外国人储蓄多,更容易导致危机。

本题要选容易导致危机的选项,因此选A。

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