NO.PZ202206070100000503
问题如下：
Among the three countries examined by the investment team, which is in the most attractive phase of the business cycle for equity returns?选项：
A.Hungary
B.Ireland
C.Spain
解释：
Solution
A is correct. The most favorable phases when considering equity returns are initial recovery and early upswing; the late upswing, slowdown, and recession phases carry the greater risk for equities.
Hungary has the combination of factors consistent with the initial recovery/early upswing phases of the business cycle—increasing production, low inflation, improving confidence, stimulatory fiscal/monetary policies, and abundant capacity. These indicators point to strongly rising stock prices and therefore most attractive for equity returns.
C is incorrect as discussed above. Spain appears to be in late upswing with high production, exuberant confidence and rising inflation, and restrictive fiscal/monetary policies. Stocks would be topping out and often volatile.
B is incorrect as discussed above. Ireland is likely at risk of entering a recession with production, utilization and inflation each above long-term averages while confidence is weakening. Fiscal/monetary policies are on a cautionary note. Stocks would be in bottoming/starting to rise stage.
本题考查的是大类资产在不同经济阶段的表现。
A是正确的。考虑股票收益时，最有利的阶段是最初的复苏和早期的上升阶段；最后的上涨、放缓和衰退阶段给股市带来了更大的风险。
匈牙利拥有与商业周期初期复苏/早期上升阶段相一致的因素组合——生产增加、低通胀、信心改善、刺激性的财政/货币政策和充裕的产能。这些指标表明股价将强劲上涨，因此对股票回报最有吸引力。
如上所述，C是不正确的。西班牙似乎正处于经济增长的后期，生产旺盛，信心旺盛，通胀上升，实行限制性的财政/货币政策。股市将触顶，而且面临经常波动。
B是不正确的，如上所述。爱尔兰可能面临进入衰退的风险，生产、利用率和通胀均高于长期平均水平，而信心却在减弱。财政/货币政策处于谨慎状态。股票将经历触底/开始上涨阶段。
请问trend什么意思？和泰勒rule里 expected GDP-trend GDP?well above trend 和 above trend 怎么理解？谢谢
