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CFA KING · 2023年05月10日

Why not see the ROE VS required return

NO.PZ2023032701000023

问题如下:

Barton’s manager, George Eckhart, asks her to evaluate the stocks of two companies for possible inclusion in that fund: XRail Company (XRL) and Z-Tarp Limited (ZTL), (see Exhibit 1).

Exhibit 1

Selected Stock Data for XRL and ZTL and Additional Market Information

Barton and Eckhart discuss the impact of a company’s growth rate on its future stock price. Barton determines XRL’s growth rate of earnings for the period from 2011 to 2015 and compares it to the current nominal growth rate of the US economy. She concludes that XRL is likely to be in the transition stage of growth.

Barton's conclusion that XRL is in the transition phase is best described as:

选项:

A.

correct

B.

incorrect, because the company is in the supernormal growth phase

C.

incorrect, because the company is in the mature phase

解释:

Barton’s statement is incorrect because the company is in the mature phase. The economy’s nominal growth rate, from Exhibit 1, is real growth rate + inflation = 3.7% + 2% = 5.7%.

XRL’s compound growth rate, over the four-year period is 5.7%, approximately equal to the economy’s growth rate.

g=(3.15/2.52)1/4-1=5.7%

Where g is the compound growth rate in earnings and EPS is earnings per share.

A company in the mature phase typically has earnings growing at a rate comparable to the economy’s growth rate.

ROE=31.6%>Re=8.84%, why not be the growth phase?

1 个答案

王园圆_品职助教 · 2023年05月10日

同学你好,ROE和Re的比较只能用来讨论公司是不是能够持续提供residual income

更何况题目里的ROE和Re只是一期的数据,很可能下一期RI就归0了,用一期的数据去描述公司所处的增长阶段会有很大的偏差

而要看公司是处于哪个阶段,只需要看公司的平均的growth rate是高速,中速还是低速,和Re、ROE都是没有关系的


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