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TZXคิดถึง · 2023年05月03日

没看懂本题想表达的意思。

NO.PZ2023040601000089

问题如下:

Some of Morgan’s work involves making investment recommendations based on his economic forecasts. Pinnacle’s global economic model has signaled that Italy’s economy, which is currently in a recession, will show signs of improvement in the coming months. He is considering the following recommendations for investors in the Italian markets: Implement a trade that will steepen the yield curve now and prepare to rotate from small-cap stocks into large-cap stocks and from value stocks into growth stocks over the next several months.

Morgan’s investment recommendations are most likely appropriate regarding:

选项:

A.

the recommended yield curve trade.

B.

growth versus value stocks.

C.

large-cap versus small-cap stocks.

解释:

A is correct. Morgan’s recommendations to implement a trade that steepens the yield curve in the midst of the recession is consistent with the economic cycle. The yield curve typically steepens when the economy is in recession. But given that value stocks are likely to outperform growth stocks and that small-cap stocks are likely to outperform large-cap stocks in the immediate aftermath of a recession, Morgan’s recommendation regarding growth equities is less likely to succeed.

C is incorrect because large cap stocks tend to outperform going into and during a recession, but small cap stocks tend to outperform coming out of a recession.

B is incorrect because yield curves tend to steepen during a recession, so the recommendation to implement a yield curve steepening trade now is consistent with the economic cycle.

我理解题干是说现在处于衰退,预测过段时间会好转(退出衰退)。那么根据课上讲的,衰退时收益率曲线steepen,所以好转后,应该会变平;同样的对于退出衰退时,应该投资小盘股和成长型股票。

为什么答案正好是反着的?

1 个答案
已采纳答案

星星_品职助教 · 2023年05月04日

同学你好,

在经济刚走出衰退的时候:

1)small outperform large;

2)value outperform growth;(相反,当经济已经进入正轨后,growth会outperform value)

上述结论源自历史实证统计,可以直接记忆一下。

由于题干提示马上衰退结束(......show signs of improvement in the coming months),所以此时应该建仓小盘(small)股和value stock。

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