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𝒜𝒩𝒥𝒜 安雅🎃 · 2023年04月16日

怎么判断题干给的g是否为sustainable growth rate?

NO.PZ2023032701000014

问题如下:

Rae is Using GGM to value Tasty Foods.

Rae notes that the EPS of the company has been increasing at an average rate of 4.48 percent per year. The dividend payout ratio has remained fairly stable of 50%, and an average ROE of 10.6%.

Rae uses the CAPM to compute the return on equity. He uses the annual yield of 4 percent on the 10-year Treasury bond as the risk-free return. He estimates the expected US equity risk premium, with the S&P 500 Index used as a proxy for the market, to be 6.5 percent per year. The estimated beta of Tasty Foods against the S&P 500 Index is 1.10.

The stock’s current price is $8.42

Last year dividend per share is 0.59$/S.

Rae considers a security trading within a band of ±10 percent of his estimate of intrinsic value to be within a “fair value range.” By that criterion, the stock of Tasty Foods is:

选项:

A.

undervalued

B.

fairly valued

C.

Overvalued

解释:

G=ROE*b=10.6%*50%=5.3%

Using CAPM to estimate required rate of return=0.04 + 1.10(0.065) = 0.1115 or 11.15 percent.

Using the Gordon Growth Model,

Rae’s estimate of the intrinsic value is $10.62. So, the band Rae is looking at is $10.62 ± 0.10($10.62), which runs from $10.62 + $1.06 = $11.68 on the upside to $10.62 -$1.06 = $9.56 on the downside. Because $8.42 is below $9.56, Rae would consider Tasty Foods to be undervalued.


李老师在讲这道题的时候说难点是题目给了我们的两个g,我们要判断用哪个g,接着李老师说用sustainble g,就是ROE*b算出来的g。


我的疑问是,怎么从题干首两句话(如下两点)判断哪个是【历史数据的g】,哪个是【sustainable g】?

  • EPS of the company has been increasing at an average rate of 4.48%.
  • The dividen payout ratio has remained farily stable of 50% and an average ROE of 10.6%.


1 个答案
已采纳答案

王园圆_品职助教 · 2023年04月16日

同学你好,其实很简单,首先,我们知道g的本源定义是分红的增长率——而不是EPS的增长率

而ROE*b=g这个公式是给定的,就是讲义上明确写的用来求分红的增长率g的,所以用它求g一般不会有问题

现实情况是,EPS的增长率很多时候很可能是和分红增长率不匹配的,所以我们不应该以EPS增长率为准


此外,本题的表述本身就不是很完善,所以才会造成同学的困扰,相信考试的时候哪怕要考察对g的选择,这两个表述也一定会更清晰一些,更容易让考生判断,所以同学不用太担心



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