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Gigi W.藝錡 · 2023年04月14日

第三年以后的RI 问题

  1. CFA II
  2. Equity

* 问题详情，请 查看题干

NO.PZ201710200100000408

问题如下：

8. Based on Exhibits 2 and 3 and the multistage RI model, Castovan should estimate the intrinsic value of TTCI to be closest to:

选项：

A.

€54.88.

B.

€83.01.

C.

€85.71.

解释：

C is correct.

Residual income per share for the next three years is calculated as follows.

Because Castovan forecasts that residual income per share will be constant into perpetuity, equal to Year 3 residual income per share, the present value of the terminal value is calculated using a persistence factor of 1.

Present value of terminal value = 8.54−(0.087×58.25)(1+0.087−1)(1+0.087)2\frac{8.54-(0.087\times58.25)}{(1+0.087-1)(1+0.087)^2}

= 3.47(0.087)(1.087)2\frac{3.47}{ ( 0.087 ) ( 1.087 ) ^2} =33.78

So, the intrinsic value of TTCI is then calculated as follows.

V0=\frac{45.25+3.88/1.087+3.68/(1.087)^2+33.78}=85.71

我是像李老师在第三年划一刀，Yr 1 , 2, 3 的 bookvalue 分别是51.61， 58.25， 65.2；用single stage 计算出Yr 3以后未来 的RI ： [ROE （12%） - cost of equity （8.7%) ] *BV@Yr 3 (65.2) ➗re- g (此处因为已知constant growth, g=0) , 计算得 24.73 ； 再与第三年得RI 3.47相加 最后和前两年得一起折现，看了答案我知道应该i用永续公式，但不知道我在single stage 那里出了什么错？

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2 个答案

王园圆_品职助教 · 2024年04月05日

同学你好，因为这些题目都是原版书上的原题，这个解法是原版书正文给出的公式一致的解法，李老师的解法才是为了让同学们理解一致而另外给出的，官方答案自然不会有李老师的解法哦

同学用两个方法都可以做，看自己习惯就好

王园圆_品职助教 · 2023年04月14日

同学你好，你要注意，第三年计算的RI已经进入的永续不变的阶段

也就是说，其实第一阶段只有两年，第二阶段是RI3和以后的所有年份

所以题目解析中的方法是：RI3/r得到的是第二年年末的PVR I

所以最后的V0 = B0 + RI1折现1年+（RI2+PVRI）折现两年


如果用李老师的方法在第三年切一刀，那相当于默认第四年及未来是永续不变阶段

此时需要注意，第一阶段是三年，相当于PVRI’ = RI4（=RI3）/r——这个PVRI落在第三年的年末

所以最后的V0 = B0+ RI1折现1年+RI2折现2年 + （RI3+PVRI‘）折现三年


你可以验证一下，这两种方法最后算出来的V0一定是相同的

William Pan · 2024年04月05日

为什么答案不提供李老师的算法？现在这个答案有点绕。

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NO.PZ201710200100000408问题如下8. Baseon Exhibits 2 an3 anthe multistage RI mol, Castovshoulestimate the intrinsic value of TTto closest to:A.€54.88.B.€83.01.C.€85.71. C is correct.Resiincome per share for the next three years is calculatefollows.Because Castovforecasts thresiincome per share will constant into perpetuity, equto Ye3 resiincome per share, the present value of the terminvalue is calculateusing a persistenfactor of 1.Present value of terminvalue = 8.54−(0.087×58.25)(1+0.087−1)(1+0.087)2\frac{8.54-(0.087\times58.25)}{(1+0.087-1)(1+0.087)^2}(1+0.087−1)(1+0.087)28.54−(0.087×58.25)​= 3.47(0.087)(1.087)2\frac{3.47}{ ( 0.087 ) ( 1.087 ) ^2}(0.087)(1.087)23.47​ =33.78 So, the intrinsic value of TTis then calculatefollows.V0=\frac{45.25+3.88/1.087+3.68/(1.087)^2+33.78}=85.71 没搞明白为什么单阶段模型里的PVRI可以用（ROE-r)*B0/(r-g)来计算，这道题多阶段模型的后面说了ROE=12%不变，r=8.7%不变，g也不变，为什么就不能用前面这个公式呢？

2024-10-01 20:35 1 · 回答

NO.PZ201710200100000408问题如下8. Baseon Exhibits 2 an3 anthe multistage RI mol, Castovshoulestimate the intrinsic value of TTto closest to:A.€54.88.B.€83.01.C.€85.71. C is correct.Resiincome per share for the next three years is calculatefollows.Because Castovforecasts thresiincome per share will constant into perpetuity, equto Ye3 resiincome per share, the present value of the terminvalue is calculateusing a persistenfactor of 1.Present value of terminvalue = 8.54−(0.087×58.25)(1+0.087−1)(1+0.087)2\frac{8.54-(0.087\times58.25)}{(1+0.087-1)(1+0.087)^2}(1+0.087−1)(1+0.087)28.54−(0.087×58.25)​= 3.47(0.087)(1.087)2\frac{3.47}{ ( 0.087 ) ( 1.087 ) ^2}(0.087)(1.087)23.47​ =33.78 So, the intrinsic value of TTis then calculatefollows.V0=\frac{45.25+3.88/1.087+3.68/(1.087)^2+33.78}=85.71 如题，为什么这里是1，其他题没给的话怎么算

2024-09-29 11:30 1 · 回答

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2024-08-20 08:56 2 · 回答

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2024-07-12 11:41 1 · 回答

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2024-04-08 23:50 1 · 回答