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米妮涵 · 2023年04月12日

能否梳理一下经常账户、投资回报之间的关系?

* 问题详情,请 查看题干

NO.PZ202105270100000505

问题如下:

Based on Bader’s expectations for current account secular trends as shown in Exhibit 1, Bader should reallocate capital, all else being equal, from:

选项:

A.Country A to Country C. B.Country B to Country A. C.Country C to Country A.

解释:

A is correct.

Bader should reallocate capital from Country A, which is expected to have a secularly rising current account deficit, to Country C, which is expected to have a secularly rising current account surplus. A rising current account deficit will tend to put upward pressure on real required returns and downward pressure on asset prices, whereas a rising current account surplus (or narrowing deficit) will put downward pressure on real required returns and upward pressure on asset prices. Analysts should consider reallocation of portfolio assets from countries with secularly rising current account deficits to those with secularly rising current account surpluses (or narrowing deficits).

巴德尔应该将资本从A国(预计经常账户赤字将长期上升)重新配置到C国(预计经常账户盈余将长期上升)。不断上升的经常账户赤字往往会给实际所需回报带来上行压力,给资产价格带来下行压力,而不断上升的经常账户盈余(或赤字缩小)则会给实际所需回报带来下行压力,给资产价格带来上行压力。分析师应考虑将投资组合资产从经常账户赤字长期上升的国家重新配置到经常账户盈余长期上升(或赤字不断缩小)的国家。


题目给出的信息比较多,还有预期通货膨胀、资本账户等相关信息,能否帮忙梳理一下主干解题信息和思路?

2 个答案

笛子_品职助教 · 2023年05月22日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


A rising current account deficit will tend to put upward pressure on real required returns and downward pressure on asset prices 答案里这句还讲到了对real required returns的影响,能不能帮忙解释一下。


我们知道,一个国家持续的贸易逆差,经常账户有赤字,意味着这个国家有很多的外债,那么这个国家就存在风险。

既然存在风险,那么投资者要求的风险溢价就高,因此required returns 会高。

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加油吧,让我们一起遇见更好的自己!

笛子_品职助教 · 2023年04月13日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


题目给出的信息比较多,还有预期通货膨胀、资本账户等相关信息,能否帮忙梳理一下主干解题信息和思路?


Hello,亲爱的同学!


这里就涉及到两个结论。

一是经常账户盈余会带来货币升值,以及该国资产价格升值。

同理,经常账户赤字会带来货币贬值,以及该国资产价格贬值。


资本账户账户和经常账户相反,经常账户盈余 = 资本账户赤字。


既然预期C国经常账户盈余长期上升,A国经常账户赤字长期上升,则意味着C国货币升值,C国资产价格上升。A国货币贬值,A国资产价格贬值。因此卖出A国,买入C国。

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努力的时光都是限量版,加油!

13675759099 · 2023年05月21日

A rising current account deficit will tend to put upward pressure on real required returns and downward pressure on asset prices 答案里这句还讲到了对real required returns的影响,能不能帮忙解释一下。

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NO.PZ202105270100000505问题如下Baseon Bar’s expectations for current account secultren shown in Exhibit 1, Bar shoulreallocate capital, all else being equal, from:A.Country A to Country C.B.Country B to Country A.C.Country C to Country A. A is correct. Bar shoulreallocate capitfrom Country whiis expecteto have a secularly rising current account ficit, to Country whiis expecteto have a secularly rising current account surplus. A rising current account ficit will tento put upwarpressure on rerequirereturns anwnwarpressure on asset prices, wherea rising current account surplus (or narrowing ficit) will put wnwarpressure on rerequirereturns anupwarpressure on asset prices. Analysts shoulconsir reallocation of portfolio assets from countries with secularly rising current account ficits to those with secularly rising current account surpluses (or narrowing ficits).巴德尔应该将资本从A国(预计经常账户赤字将长期上升)重新配置到C国(预计经常账户盈余将长期上升)。不断上升的经常账户赤字往往会给实际所需回报带来上行压力,给资产价格带来下行压力,而不断上升的经常账户盈余(或赤字缩小)则会给实际所需回报带来下行压力,给资产价格带来上行压力。分析师应考虑将投资组合资产从经常账户赤字长期上升的国家重新配置到经常账户盈余长期上升(或赤字不断缩小)的国家。 国别三的这个热钱涌入因素不用考虑吗

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