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依帆 · 2023年04月09日

请问选项B为什么是right-way risk?

NO.PZ2016072602000031

问题如下:

Counterparty A is an American company with manufacturing operations in Indonesia and its main customers in the United States, while counterparty B is an American company that manufactures its goods domestically and exports solely to Indonesia. Which one of the following transactions with either counterparty will be a wrong-way exposure for a bank?

选项:

A.

A five-year plain-vanilla IDR/USD cross-currency swap between the bank and counterparty A where the bank is USD interest rate receiver

B.

A five-year plain-vanilla IDR/USD currency option sold by the bank to counterparty A for it to buy IDR at a certain rate

C.

A five-year plain-vanilla IDR/USD cross-currency swap between the bank and counterparty B where the bank is USD interest rate receiver

D.

A five-year plain-vanilla IDR/USD currency option bought by the bank from counterparty B for the bank to buy IDR at a certain rate

解释:

C is correct. This is an example of a wrong-way exposure, where a gain on the instrument for the bank is associated with a higher probability of default (PD) for its counterparty. If the IDR depreciates, counterparty A will make a profit because its costs will go down in dollars; conversely for counterparty B, because its dollar revenues will decrease. Under c., the company pays USD and receives IDR. This transaction will create a loss if the IDR depreciates. In this situation, counterparty B will lose money as well on its exports. Hence, this is a wrong-way trade.

老师好,请问B的意思是“A公司购买了印度尼西亚币”吗?但A公司是在印度尼西亚生产然后卖到美国,A公司收的是美元,应该是印度尼西亚币升值对A公司不利好啊。我搞不太懂B选项的逻辑,麻烦您完整的讲解一下吧,谢谢!

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李坏_品职助教 · 2023年04月09日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


这道题问的是站在银行的角度来看,下列的选项哪一项是wrong way risk。


B选项银行是卖给了A公司一个期权,期初银行就立刻收到了期权费,之后A公司是否出现违约,和银行无关了。既然期权费收入已经拿到手了,即便IDR升值,A公司违约,也丝毫不影响银行的收入。

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