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上小学 · 2023年04月05日

请问求出了标准差不应该乘以300万吗?

NO.PZ2020011303000127

问题如下:

A USD 1million loan has a probability of 0.5% of defaulting in a year. The recovery rate is estimated to be 40%.

The expected loss in USD is 0.003. This is USD 3,000.

The variance of the loss is 0.001791. The standard deviation is the square root of this, or USD 0.04232 million. This is USD 42,320.

Suppose that there are three USD 1 million loans. The correlation between any pair of the loans is 0.2. What is the mean and standard deviation of the portfolio credit loss?

选项:

解释:

The expected loss on the three loans is three times the expected loss on one loan or USD 9,000. The variance of the portfolio loss is

3 × 0.001791+ 6 × 0.001791 × 0.2 = 0.007522

The standard deviation of the portfolio loss is the square root of this or USD 0.086731. This is USD 86,731. (Note that the standard deviation is less than three times the standard deviation calculated for one loan because there are some diversification benefits.)

题目问:假设有三个1m的贷款,每个贷款的一年的违约概率是0.5%recover rate40%,任意两个贷款之间的相关系数是0.2,求这个贷款组合的EL和损失的标准差。

EL=n*PD*EAD*LGD=3*0.5%*1m*(1-40%)=0.009

$形式9000

组合方差=3*单个方差+6*ρ*单个方差=3 × 0.001791+ 6 × 0.001791 × 0.2 = 0.007522

标准差=0.007522^0.5=0.086731

dollar形式USD 86,731

请问组合标准差求出后为何只乘以100万呢,应该乘以300万吧。否则如果直接用DOLLAR 形式的话,结果应该不同。谢谢

1 个答案
已采纳答案

品职答疑小助手雍 · 2023年04月05日

同学你好,因为前面算组合方差的时候已经乘以3了,所以后面就不能乘了。

所以用dollar形式算出来应该是一样的。

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