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小枕头 · 2018年05月05日

问一道题:NO.PZ201602270200002008 第8小题 [ CFA II ]

* 问题详情,请 查看题干

问题如下图:

    

选项:

A.

B.

C.

解释:


我找到了何老师讲的讲义相关部分,还有另外一个提问的同学的解答,还是不明白为什么flatten会是默认成曲线向下移动同时flatten,而不是曲线整体向上移动同时flatten(比如短期利率上升的多一些,远期利率上升的少一些)?


1 个答案

发亮_品职助教 · 2018年05月07日

也可以是你说的那种情况。

关于,利率曲线的flattening,关注的核心是:曲线更加平坦;即,短期利率和长期利率的Gap在减少。

如果没有具体描述短期利率或者长期利率之前的图形是什么样,或者没有描述短期利率与长期利率是怎么变动的,只说了flattening,那么只能判断,长期和短期的Gap是减少的。

对于一般而言,利率曲线是upward sloping的,(二级里也学了很多理论在解释为什么长期要更高),如果在这种情况下说flatting,意味着短期利率和长期利率的差距减少。

于是,由短期利率和长期利率求出来的implied forward rate会更小,

如上图所示,如果r3,和r2之间的差距在变小,那么算出来的f2,1也在变小。

在倒推求含权债券的价值时,我们用的就是每个节点上的one-year forward rate,如果forward rate在减少,说明折现出来的值容易更大,在每个节点上发生被赎回的可能性加大。

当然,长期利率下移,也是flattening的一种,只记这一种情况来分析callable bond的权利价值,也算是一种简便方法。

 

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