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胡恒 · 2023年03月21日

解题思路和依据?

* 问题详情,请 查看题干

NO.PZ201812100100000608

问题如下:

Pereira should forecast that the ROE for Globales is likely to decline:

选项:

A.

more slowly than that of the industry competitor.

B.

at the same rate as the industry competitor.

C.

more rapidly than that of the industry competitor.

解释:

A is correct.

Based on the principle of mean reversion, the high ROE for both firms should revert towards the mean. Globales has a higher cash flow component to its return than the peer firm, however, so its high return on common equity should persist longer than that of the peer firm. The peer firm has a higher accruals component, so it is likely to revert more quickly.

解析:earning具有mean reversion的特点,高于或者低于平均的earning最终都会回归到平均值。G公司和竞争者现在的ROE都高于行业平均,意味着两家公司以后的ROE都会趋于平均值,也就是earning下降。G公司相比其竞争者,cash flow占earning的比重更大,也就是G公司的earning更具有持续性,下降的也会更慢。

从ROE的杜邦分析来看是看不出来A选项的,所以我选了B。那这题目是完全定性判断吗? 

1 个答案
已采纳答案

王园圆_品职助教 · 2023年03月21日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


同学你好,首先本题对应的题干内容是最后一段文字,

然后要做的就是找题目考察的知识点,请看以下讲义截图

两个截图黄色的部分分别对应本题的两个考点,earning中现金含量越高,质量越高,越具有可持续性;以及earnings是具有回归均值的特性的。由于Globale公司的earnings虽然也高于行业平均,但现金含量更高,所以肯定就比可比公司下降的会更慢一些。

另外,本题是没有涉及ROE的杜邦分析的


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