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dgazyw · 2023年03月20日

这题A选项啥意思?高收益货币的长期均衡值?这么理解感觉怪怪的,不太懂

NO.PZ2018091706000061

问题如下:

Assume that the DM country has what is considered a low-yield safe haven currency while the EM country has a high-yield currency whose value is more exposed to fluctuations in the global economic growth rate. All else equal, the exchange rate for the EM currency will most likely depreciate if the:


选项:

A.

long-run equilibrium value of the high-yield currency is revised upward

B.

nominal yield spread between the EM and DM countries increases over time

C.

expected inflation differential between the EM and DM countries is revised upward

解释:

All else equal, an increase in the expected inflation differential should lead to depreciation of the EM currency.

解析:

real exchange rate (A/B) = equilibrium real exchange rate + (real interest rate B - real interest rate A)- (risk premium B - risk premium A)

根据上述公式。所以AB选项错误。

在其它条件相同的情况下,预期通胀率的扩大会加两国的风险溢价之差,从而应会导致新兴市场货币贬值。所以C选项正确。


这题A选项啥意思?高收益货币的长期均衡值?这么理解感觉怪怪的,不太懂。。。还是高收益货币的均衡利率值?

1 个答案

笛子_品职助教 · 2023年03月21日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


这题A选项啥意思?高收益货币的长期均衡值?这么理解感觉怪怪的,不太懂。。。还是高收益货币的均衡利率值?


Hello,亲爱的同学!

A是说,高收益率的货币(可以理解为高名义利率的货币),汇率的长期均衡价值会上升。

这里是指汇率的长期均衡值,不是均衡利率值。


本题考查公式:

real exchange rate (A/B) = equilibrium real exchange rate + (real interest rate B - real interest rate A)- (risk premium B - risk premium A)


从公式看出,实际汇率取决于,实际汇率均衡值、实际利率差值、风险溢价差值。


通胀也是一种风险溢价,A选项不对,因为高名义利率,我们要区分高名义利率是因为高实际利率,还是因为高通胀。

如果高实际利率,会提高real exchange rate,如果高通胀,会降低real exchange rate。但是这两者均和equilibrium real exchange rate(就是A选项里的long-run equilibrium value)没有直接关系。

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努力的时光都是限量版,加油!

Captain America · 2023年10月18日

请问A选项高收益率为什么就是高名义利率?我们平时看到的利率是名义利率还是实际利率,我们平时看到的汇率是名义汇率还是实际汇率?

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