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AnnaZ · 2023年03月03日

RI2016=1.74

  1. CFA II
  2. Equity

NO.PZ2018103102000064

问题如下：

Jacques prepares to update the valuation of TMT. The company’s expected ROE in 2017 is 34.5% but it is assumed that the firm’s ROE will slowly decline towards the cost of equity thereafter.  As of the beginning of 2015, based upon the information in the below table, use the multistage-stage residual income (RI) model to determine the intrinsic value of the equity of TMT. The intrinsic value per share is closest to:

选项：

A.

22.72.

B.

14.97.

C.

78.81.

解释：

B is correct.

考点：RI

解析：B是正确的。第一步是计算2015 - 2017年的每股剩余收益:

第二步是计算终值的现值:

PV of Terminal Value =1.88/(1+0.08-0.85)(1.08)2=7

那么每股的内在价值就是: V0=5+1.6/(1.080)+1.74/(1.08)2+7=14.97

用公式RI2017=E-r*BV2016=1.88

但是如果用RI2017=RI2016*w 为什么就不对呢

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1 个答案

王园圆_品职助教 · 2023年03月03日

嗨，爱思考的PZer你好：


同学你好， 这是因为persistence factor是对公司RI进入永续的稳定下降状态时才有效的

题目表格给了2015年到2017年三年用来计算RI的数据，意思就是这三年是multi-stage RI model里的第一个RI不稳定的阶段。而persistence factor需要在2017年以后才开始有效

同类型原理的还有很多计算DDM，FCFF模型的题目，在题目给定条件能够计算前几年的分红和现金流阶段，都不适用于后期第二阶段的稳定增长阶段

同学可以都注意一下这类题型即可


----------------------------------------------
虽然现在很辛苦，但努力过的感觉真的很好，加油！

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