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笑笑生 · 2018年04月30日

问一道题:NO.PZ201712110200000304 第4小题 [ CFA II ]

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这题是如何求callable bond 的value的?能画出二叉树并列出求解过程吗?

问题如下图:

选项:

A.

B.

C.

解释:

2 个答案

笑笑生 · 2018年05月03日

为什么用one-year forward rate 折现?



发亮_品职助教 · 2018年05月03日

因为这只callable bond没有lockout period,我们需要确定在每年年底这个节点上是否会行权,所以要用一年期的forward rate,往上一年年底折

发亮_品职助教 · 2018年05月01日

求callable bond时,由于未来现金流并不确定,所以我们假设从债券到期日开始一步步一年一年地往前折现,看看每一年那个节点上,折现回来的债券价值是否会触发行权价,如果触发,就将那年的债券价值调整为行权价,代表债券在那个节点被行权,如果没有触发,代表含权债券还存在,然后继续往前折现,继续对比是否会触发行权价行权。如此反复往前折现,碰到触发行权价就调整债券价格,不触发行权,就按算出来的价值继续往前折,直至折到现在就算出来了含权债券的价格。这样,折回来的债券价格就已经考虑了未来是否会行权。

一般地,存在一个对利率波动的假设,即,认为未来利率会衍生出不同地走向,以二叉树为例,就是每个节点有2个走向,每个走向都有一定的概率,所以在二叉树的情况下,同样是将债券到期日的现金流一步步往上一个节点折现,只不过需要考虑两个走向的概率影响,用概率乘出来的平均数值就是上一个节点的价值。然后对比是否出发行权价,如此往复。

本题比较特殊,是因为Exhibit 1里面的利率,没有波动,即,题目给你的利率只有一条路径,那么利率路径的发生概率是100%,不需要像二叉树那样考虑两个路径的平均价,所以直接比较是否触发行权就OK。

下面是本题的折算:

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