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佳妮 · 2023年02月11日

讲义上写的出口/进口恶化是危机前的信号

  1. CFA II
  2. Economics Analysis

NO.PZ2018091706000064

问题如下：

Beauregard has concerns about the firm’s experiences during currency crises. She recalls reading a study produced by the IMF that an impending currency crisis is signaled by numerous economic variables. She makes the following statements with regard to some of these variables:

1. Trade balances exhibit substantial decline prior to the crisis.

2. A country has distinctive economic growth patterns ahead of the crisis.

3. Inflation is significantly higher in the pre-crisisperiod.

Which of Beauregard’s statements regarding a currency crisis is the most accurate?


选项：

A.

Statement 3

B.

Statement 2

C.

Statement 1

解释：

Statement 3 is the most accurate. Inflation tends to be significantly higher in pre-crisisperiods compared with tranquil periods.

解析：A选项最准确的。与平静时期相比，危机前时期的通胀率往往要高得多。

C选项错误，the terms of trade而非Trade balances下降。如果是Trade balances大幅下降，表明危机已经发生，就不是危机的信号了。

B选项错误，因为危机发生前，经济不会有什么额外的增长。

为啥这题目说是已经发生的信号呢？

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1 个答案

笛子_品职助教 · 2023年02月12日

嗨，努力学习的PZer你好：


为啥这题目说是已经发生的信号呢？

Hello，亲爱的同学！

这道题是问，危机前会有什么信号，能提前预测危机的发生。所以是已经发生的信号，但是不是已经发生的危机。


这道题只需要判断陈述的对错就可以了。

1. Trade balances exhibit substantial decline prior to the crisis.第一个陈述，是未发生危机（危机前prior to the crisis），未发生危机则Trade balances不会大幅下降，因此不对。

 2、A country has distinctive economic growth patterns ahead of the crisis.也是危机前。危机前经济已经不增长了，所以这个说法不对。

3. Inflation is significantly higher in the pre-crisisperiod.A选项最准确的。也是危机前。与平静时期相比，危机前时期的通胀率往往要高得多。这个说法正确。



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