如何判断长短期, 以及无风险利率

NO.PZ2018091901000059 问题如下 Australiinvestor currently hol a A$240 million equity portfolio. He is consiring rebalancing the portfolio baseon assessment of the risk anreturn prospects facing the Australieconomy. Information relating to the Australiinvestment markets anthe economy hbeen collectein the following table: Using the information in the table anthe GrinolKroner mol, calculates the expecteannuequity risk premium. A.6.25% 3.95% C.3.45% B is correct.The GrinolKronermol states ththe expectereturn on equity is the sum of the expectencome return (2.4%), the expectenominearnings growth return (7.3% = 2.3%from inflation + 5.0% from reearnings growth) anthe expecterepricingreturn (–3.45%). The expectechange in market valuation of –3.45% iscalculatethe percentage change in the P/E level from the current 14.5× tothe expectelevel of 14.0×: (14 – 14.5)/14.5 =–3.45%. Tus, the expectereturnis 2.4% + 7.3% – 3.45% = 6.25%.Expecteequityreturn – Current 10-yegovernment bonyiel=Expecteequity risk premium6.25% – 2.3% =3.95%解析从表格中直接可得Expectennuincome return= 2.4%The expecteominearnings growth return=Expecteannureearnings growth + Expectenflation rate=5%+2.3%=7.3%对于The expecteepricing return，我们可以通过预期P/E值与当前P/E值得变化率求出，即 (14−14.5)/14.5 =−3.45%.所以最终的收益率为2.4% + 7.3% – 3.45% =6.25%.Expecteannualequity risk premium=Expecteequity return –Current 10-Yeargovernment bonyiel6.25% – 2.3% = 3.95%注意到上述公式中之所以使用10-Yeargovernment bon当前收益率是因为题目中没有给出与之对应的未来收益率，所以我们只能用当前收益率作为替代。 如题

NO.PZ2018091901000059问题如下 Australiinvestor currently hol a A$240 million equity portfolio. He is consiring rebalancing the portfolio baseon assessment of the risk anreturn prospects facing the Australieconomy. Information relating to the Australiinvestment markets anthe economy hbeen collectein the following table: Using the information in the table anthe GrinolKroner mol, calculates the expecteannuequity risk premium. A.6.25% 3.95% C.3.45% B is correct.The GrinolKronermol states ththe expectereturn on equity is the sum of the expectencome return (2.4%), the expectenominearnings growth return (7.3% = 2.3%from inflation + 5.0% from reearnings growth) anthe expecterepricingreturn (–3.45%). The expectechange in market valuation of –3.45% iscalculatethe percentage change in the P/E level from the current 14.5× tothe expectelevel of 14.0×: (14 – 14.5)/14.5 =–3.45%. Tus, the expectereturnis 2.4% + 7.3% – 3.45% = 6.25%.Expecteequityreturn – Current 10-yegovernment bonyiel=Expecteequity risk premium6.25% – 2.3% =3.95%解析从表格中直接可得Expectennuincome return= 2.4%The expecteominearnings growth return=Expecteannureearnings growth + Expectenflation rate=5%+2.3%=7.3%对于The expecteepricing return，我们可以通过预期P/E值与当前P/E值得变化率求出，即 (14−14.5)/14.5 =−3.45%.所以最终的收益率为2.4% + 7.3% – 3.45% =6.25%.Expecteannualequity risk premium=Expecteequity return –Current 10-Yeargovernment bonyiel6.25% – 2.3% = 3.95%注意到上述公式中之所以使用10-Yeargovernment bon当前收益率是因为题目中没有给出与之对应的未来收益率，所以我们只能用当前收益率作为替代。 为什么不是以1年期国债作为基准

NO.PZ2018091901000059 问题如下 Australiinvestor currently hol a A$240 million equity portfolio. He is consiring rebalancing the portfolio baseon assessment of the risk anreturn prospects facing the Australieconomy. Information relating to the Australiinvestment markets anthe economy hbeen collectein the following table: Using the information in the table anthe GrinolKroner mol, calculates the expecteannuequity risk premium. A.6.25% 3.95% C.3.45% B is correct.The GrinolKronermol states ththe expectereturn on equity is the sum of the expectencome return (2.4%), the expectenominearnings growth return (7.3% = 2.3%from inflation + 5.0% from reearnings growth) anthe expecterepricingreturn (–3.45%). The expectechange in market valuation of –3.45% iscalculatethe percentage change in the P/E level from the current 14.5× tothe expectelevel of 14.0×: (14 – 14.5)/14.5 =–3.45%. Tus, the expectereturnis 2.4% + 7.3% – 3.45% = 6.25%.Expecteequityreturn – Current 10-yegovernment bonyiel=Expecteequity risk premium6.25% – 2.3% =3.95%解析从表格中直接可得Expectennuincome return= 2.4%The expecteominearnings growth return=Expecteannureearnings growth + Expectenflation rate=5%+2.3%=7.3%对于The expecteepricing return，我们可以通过预期P/E值与当前P/E值得变化率求出，即 (14−14.5)/14.5 =−3.45%.所以最终的收益率为2.4% + 7.3% – 3.45% =6.25%.Expecteannualequity risk premium=Expecteequity return –Current 10-Yeargovernment bonyiel6.25% – 2.3% = 3.95%注意到上述公式中之所以使用10-Yeargovernment bon当前收益率是因为题目中没有给出与之对应的未来收益率，所以我们只能用当前收益率作为替代。 计算equity risk premium时，在题中有当前10年起国债收益率和历史平均10年期国债收益率时，为什么不选择平均10年期国债收益率做为基准？平均数不是更可靠吗？

NO.PZ2018091901000059 问题如下 Australiinvestor currently hol a A$240 million equity portfolio. He is consiring rebalancing the portfolio baseon assessment of the risk anreturn prospects facing the Australieconomy. Information relating to the Australiinvestment markets anthe economy hbeen collectein the following table: Using the information in the table anthe GrinolKroner mol, calculates the expecteannuequity risk premium. A.6.25% 3.95% C.3.45% B is correct.The GrinolKronermol states ththe expectereturn on equity is the sum of the expectencome return (2.4%), the expectenominearnings growth return (7.3% = 2.3%from inflation + 5.0% from reearnings growth) anthe expecterepricingreturn (–3.45%). The expectechange in market valuation of –3.45% iscalculatethe percentage change in the P/E level from the current 14.5× tothe expectelevel of 14.0×: (14 – 14.5)/14.5 =–3.45%. Tus, the expectereturnis 2.4% + 7.3% – 3.45% = 6.25%.Expecteequityreturn – Current 10-yegovernment bonyiel=Expecteequity risk premium6.25% – 2.3% =3.95%解析从表格中直接可得Expectennuincome return= 2.4%The expecteominearnings growth return=Expecteannureearnings growth + Expectenflation rate=5%+2.3%=7.3%对于The expecteepricing return，我们可以通过预期P/E值与当前P/E值得变化率求出，即 (14−14.5)/14.5 =−3.45%.所以最终的收益率为2.4% + 7.3% – 3.45% =6.25%.Expecteannualequity risk premium=Expecteequity return –Current 10-Yeargovernment bonyiel6.25% – 2.3% = 3.95%注意到上述公式中之所以使用10-Yeargovernment bon当前收益率是因为题目中没有给出与之对应的未来收益率，所以我们只能用当前收益率作为替代。 The expectenominearnings growth return=Expecteannureearnings growth + Expecteinflation rate=5%+2.3%=7.3%，请问课程里面哪里提到了INFLATION RATE?没找到这个知识点。谢谢！

NO.PZ2018091901000059 问题如下 Australiinvestor currently hol a A$240 million equity portfolio. He is consiring rebalancing the portfolio baseon assessment of the risk anreturn prospects facing the Australieconomy. Information relating to the Australiinvestment markets anthe economy hbeen collectein the following table: Using the information in the table anthe GrinolKroner mol, calculates the expecteannuequity risk premium. A.6.25% 3.95% C.3.45% B is correct.The GrinolKronermol states ththe expectereturn on equity is the sum of the expectencome return (2.4%), the expectenominearnings growth return (7.3% = 2.3%from inflation + 5.0% from reearnings growth) anthe expecterepricingreturn (–3.45%). The expectechange in market valuation of –3.45% iscalculatethe percentage change in the P/E level from the current 14.5× tothe expectelevel of 14.0×: (14 – 14.5)/14.5 =–3.45%. Tus, the expectereturnis 2.4% + 7.3% – 3.45% = 6.25%.Expecteequityreturn – Current 10-yegovernment bonyiel=Expecteequity risk premium6.25% – 2.3% =3.95%解析从表格中直接可得Expectennuincome return= 2.4%The expecteominearnings growth return=Expecteannureearnings growth + Expectenflation rate=5%+2.3%=7.3%对于The expecteepricing return，我们可以通过预期P/E值与当前P/E值得变化率求出，即 (14−14.5)/14.5 =−3.45%.所以最终的收益率为2.4% + 7.3% – 3.45% =6.25%.Expecteannualequity risk premium=Expecteequity return –Current 10-Yeargovernment bonyiel6.25% – 2.3% = 3.95%注意到上述公式中之所以使用10-Yeargovernment bon当前收益率是因为题目中没有给出与之对应的未来收益率，所以我们只能用当前收益率作为替代。 ①vinyielExpecteannuincome return= 2.4%②The expectenominearnings growth return=Expecteannureearnings growth + Expecteinflation rate=5%+2.3%=7.3%③%△P/E=The expecterepricing return (14−14.5)/14.5 =−3.45%.④%△S=0（题目没有说默认为0）所以最终的收益率为2.4% + 7.3% – 3.45% = 6.25%.