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lcc7678 · 2023年02月05日

问一个有关leading indicator-based approach的问题

  1. CFA III
  2. Capital Market Expectations

* 问题详情，请 查看题干

NO.PZ202105270100000203

问题如下：

Cambo compares her business cycle forecasting approach to the approach used by the chief economist. Cambo bases her equity market forecast on a time-series model using a composite index of leading indicators as the key input, whereas the chief economist uses a detailed econometric model to generate his economic forecasts.

Discuss strengths and weaknesses of the economic forecasting approaches used by Cambo and the chief economist.


选项：

解释：

想问一下老师，在答案的中关于关于Cambo‘s用的leading indicator-based方法的weakness中有句话，“current data not reliable as input for histotical analysis”

这句话应该如何理解，我不是很明白，希望老师能解答一下。

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1 个答案

源_品职助教 · 2023年02月06日

嗨，从没放弃的小努力你好：



这句话直译为：当前数据作为历史分析的输入是不可靠

它的意思是，指标方法主要是用历史数据得到的结论。

那么其实当前数据对于预测未来而言，当前数据也是历史数据，

用这类数据作为变量，去预测未来，恐怕就是不可靠的。

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虽然现在很辛苦，但努力过的感觉真的很好，加油！

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