看了之前的答案，还是很困惑过度自信和保守的区别。

NO.PZ2018101901000018问题如下 In the 1980s, Japwviewemany FMPs the mol economy. Although its growth begto celerate sharply 1990, it wnot until the mito late 1990s thFMPs’ G forecasts were consistently achieve taking severyears to apt their forecasts to the lower growth environment, FMPs exhibitewhibehaviorbias? A.MentaccountingB.OverconfinceC.Conservatism C is correct. Conservatism biresults in maintain or only slowly upting views anforecasts spite the presenof new information. FMPs in the 1990s were reluctant to upte forecasts, spite materially fferent new information for severyears. 网上搜不到 讲义在哪提到的？

NO.PZ2018101901000018 问题如下 In the 1980s, Japwviewemany FMPs the mol economy. Although its growth begto celerate sharply 1990, it wnot until the mito late 1990s thFMPs’ G forecasts were consistently achieve taking severyears to apt their forecasts to the lower growth environment, FMPs exhibitewhibehaviorbias? A.Mentaccounting B.Overconfin C.Conservatism C is correct. Conservatism biresults in maintain or only slowly upting views anforecasts spite the presenof new information. FMPs in the 1990s were reluctant to upte forecasts, spite materially fferent new information for severyears. FMP是啥

NO.PZ2018101901000018 问题如下 In the 1980s, Japwviewemany FMPs the mol economy. Although its growth begto celerate sharply 1990, it wnot until the mito late 1990s thFMPs’ G forecasts were consistently achieve taking severyears to apt their forecasts to the lower growth environment, FMPs exhibitewhibehaviorbias? A.Mentaccounting B.Overconfin C.Conservatism C is correct. Conservatism biresults in maintain or only slowly upting views anforecasts spite the presenof new information. FMPs in the 1990s were reluctant to upte forecasts, spite materially fferent new information for severyears. 如题，先是提到了日本经济是曾经的王者。然后就说虽然1990年初日本就已经出现了经济急剧下滑的迹象，但FMPs们却直到1990年中后期才一致同意预测日本经济已经不行了。那么在年初到中后期这段时间里，就是因为FMPs们坚定地相信日本经济一定能再创辉煌，所以FMPs们的预测才迟迟无法跟现实状况同步。这不就提现了overconfince吗？过度相信日本经济一定能好转能重回巅峰。

NO.PZ2018101901000018 OverconfinConservatism C is correct. Conservatism biresults in maintain or only slowly upting views anforecasts spite the presenof new information. FMPs in the 1990s were reluctant to upte forecasts, spite materially fferent new information for severyears. 为什么不是overconfint呢？