CME的business cycle analysis里The effect of inflation on asset class的视频第9分50秒:在讲inflation超预期时对股价的影响,老师只讲了紧缩货币政策会降低股价。这是对利率的影响。那么通胀超预期时,对现金流CF的影响是啥呢?earning是增加还是减少呢?
源_品职助教 · 2023年01月10日
嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:
是的,老师之所以这么讲,是因为原版书没有给出相关结论。原版书说的是
Unexpectedly high and/or rapidly rising inflation could mean that the central bank needs to act to slow the economy, whereas very low and/or falling inflation (possibly deflation) threatens a recession and a decline in asset prices.
Within the stock market, higher inflation benefits firms that are able to pass along rising costs, whereas deflation is especially detrimental for asset-intensive, commodity-producing, and/or highly leveraged firms.
原版书只是说了,如果企业有能力转移出去通胀,那么通胀对于企业就是有利的。
所以关于earning,原版书没有给出统一结论,既然教材没给出结论,考试也不会考,所以同学不用担心。
----------------------------------------------就算太阳没有迎着我们而来,我们正在朝着它而去,加油!