NO.PZ202109080500000305
问题如下：
Based on Raphael’s explanation of the Monte Carlo model and the information in Exhibit 1, the hypothetical client will most likely:选项：
A.achieve his or her goals. B.need to increase the amount of contributions toward the goal. C.need to adopt an investment strategy with higher expected returns.解释：
SolutionB is correct. At 20 years, 69% of the trials were successful, which is below the client’s required confidence level of 75%. As such, the client has an unacceptable risk of not achieving the 20-year goal. In order to increase the percentage of successful trials to meet or exceed the confidence level, the client would need to increase the amount of the contribution toward the goal.
A is incorrect. At 10 years, the number of successful trials is 98%, and at 15 years, the number of successful trials is 87%, both above the confidence levels of 95% and 85%, respectively. However, at 20 years, the number of successful trials is 69%, which is below the confidence level of 75%. As such, although the client has an acceptable risk of achieving the 10- and 15-year goals, there is an unacceptable risk of not achieving the 20-year goal.
C is incorrect. Adopting an investment strategy with higher expected returns, and the accompanying higher expected risk, is not a practical solution for a client with a conservative risk profile.
老师请问，the number of successful trials和confidence level 一一对应吗？
10年的the number of successful trials一定要大于置信区间95%，15年的the number of successful trials一定要大于置信区间85%, 20年的the number of successful trials一定要大于置信区间75%？题干没有给这些信息呀？
At 10 years, the number of successful trials is 98%, and at 15 years, the number of successful trials is 87%, both above the confidence levels of 95% and 85%, respectively. However, at 20 years, the number of successful trials is 69%, which is below the confidence level of 75%.
