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Spencer · 2022年12月15日

The yield curve is upward-sloping and expected to remain unchanged

NO.PZ2021120102000002

问题如下:

An analyst manages an active fixed-income fund that is benchmarked to the Bloomberg Barclays US Treasury Index.

This index of US government bonds currently has a modified portfolio duration of 7.25 and an average maturity of 8.5 years. The yield curve is upward-sloping and expected to remain unchanged. Which of the following is the least attractive portfolio positioning strategy in a static curve environment?

选项:

A.

Purchasing a 10-year zero-coupon bond with a yield of 2% and a price of 82.035

B.

Entering a pay-fixed, 30-year USD interest rate swap

C.

Purchasing a 20-year Treasury and financing it in the repo market

解释:

B is correct.

The 30-year pay-fixed swap is a “short” duration position and also results in negative carry (that is, the fixed rate paid would exceed MRR received) in an upward-sloping yield curve environment; therefore, it is the least attractive static curve strategy.

In the case of a.), the manager enters a “buy-and-hold” strategy by purchasing the 10-year zero-coupon bond and extends duration, which is equal to 9.80 = 10/1.02 since the Macaulay duration of a zero equals its maturity, and ModDur = MacDur/(1+r) versus 7.25 for the index.

Under c.), the manager introduces leverage by purchasing a long-term bond and financing it at a lower short-term repo rate.

老师请问,这句话The yield curve is upward-sloping and expected to remain unchanged不是说明长期利率高,长期债券price下降,就应该short duration吗?我看到有解答是说 “因为duration与债券到期日成正比,增加duration就意味着买长期债,正常情况下,收益率曲线向上倾斜,长期利率高于短期利率,所以应该买长期债。


老师可以解释一下吗

2 个答案

pzqa015 · 2022年12月17日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


是预判未来利率变大,降低duration,因为一旦未来利率变大,价格变小。

这里是长期利率高于短期,是当前观察到的现象,并不是对未来利率的判断,对未来利率的判断是remain unchanged。

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加油吧,让我们一起遇见更好的自己!

pzqa015 · 2022年12月15日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


为什么长期利率高,长期债券价格下降?没懂你的逻辑。


收益率曲线不变,且向上倾斜:收益率曲线stable时可以执行增加duration的策略,比如Buy and hold策略以及repo carry trade策略。buy and hold就是买长期债持有,因为收益率曲线stable 且向上倾斜时,长期的票息高于短期,而债券期限长,意味着duration就大,所以,可以通过buy and hold增加duration,A选项就是buy and hold策略。


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虽然现在很辛苦,但努力过的感觉真的很好,加油!

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