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410140980 · 2022年11月03日

equity option上涨的概率为什么低于下跌的概率

NO.PZ2020033001000085

问题如下:

Which of the following statement is most accurate regarding equity option volatility?

选项:

A.

Implied price volatility is higher for away-from-the-money equity options, no matter call or put.

B.

"Crashophobia" indicates that when stock prices decline, actual equity volatility increases.

C.

Traders believe the probability of large up movements in price is similar to large down movements when compared to the lognormal distribution.

D.

Increasing leverage at lower equity prices results in increasing volatility.

解释:

D is correct.

考点:Volatility smile

解析:

A is incorrect.

There is higher implied price volatility for low strike price equity options.

B is incorrect.

"Crashophobia" is based on the idea that large price declines are more likely than assumed in Black-Scholes- Merton prices, not that volatility increases when prices decline.

C is incorrect.

Compared to the lognormal distribution, traders believe the probability of large up movements in price is lower than large down movements.

老师这个C选项能不能解释一下?

1 个答案

DD仔_品职助教 · 2022年11月04日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


C考的就是右边的图形结论,因为隐含波动率明显是左高右低的,跟lognormal相比,分布左边的尾部概率会更大,左边是down movement,右边是up movement,那么也就是down movement的prob更大。


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虽然现在很辛苦,但努力过的感觉真的很好,加油!

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