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IanZQ · 2022年10月19日

只有rolling window backtesting才是确定性(deterministic)的

* 问题详情,请 查看题干

NO.PZ202110140100000404

问题如下:

Simulation Approach 1 (historical simulation) differs from Approach 2 (Monte Carlo simulation) in that:

选项:

A.it is deterministic. B.a functional form of the statistical distribution for each decision variable needs to be specified. C.it assumes that sampling the returns from the actual data provides sufficient guidance about future asset returns.

解释:

C is correct.

Approach 1 is a historical simulation and assumes that past asset returns provide sufficient guidance about future asset returns. A is incorrect because both approaches are non-deterministic and random in nature. Approach 1 is a historical simulation, and Approach 2 is a Monte Carlo simulation.

B is incorrect because Approach 1 is a historical simulation and each random variable of interest (key driver and/or decision variable) is randomly drawn from historical data. A functional form of the statistical distribution of returns for each decision variable needs to be specified for a Monte Carlo simulation, which is Approach 2.

老师能不能再解释下确定性是什么意思?两种都是非确定性、只有rolling window backtesting才是确定性(deterministic)的代表什么含义。

1 个答案

星星_品职助教 · 2022年10月20日

同学你好,

rolling window backtesting是按照确定的顺序,在逐期往前滚动。以课上的例子为例,每次会固定的往前走一个月(deterministic),而不是在过往的月份中随机抽取(randomness)。

具体内容和举例可复习下述对应内容。