NO.PZ2018091901000051
问题如下:
Neshie Wakuluk is an investment strategist who determines whether any adjustments need to be made to her initial estimates of the respective aggregate economic growth trends based on historical rates of growth for Countries X and Y (both developed markets) and Country Z (a developing market). Exhibit 1 summarizes Wakuluk’s predictions:
Wakuluk assumes short-term interest rates adjust with expected inflation and are procyclical.
Based on Exhibit 1, what capital market effect is Country Z most likely to experience in the short-term?
选项:
A.
Cyclical assets attract investors.
B.
Monetary policy
becomes restrictive.
C.
The yield curve steepens substantially.
解释:
B is correct.
Wakuluk’s model predicts that Country Z’s business cycle is currently in the late upswing phase. In the late upswing phase, interest rates are typically rising as monetary policy becomes more restrictive. Cyclical assets may underperform, whereas the yield curve is expected to continue to flatten.
解析:
依据Wakuluk的模型预测,Z国的商业周期目前处于后期上升阶段。在上升阶段的后期,利率通常会随着货币政策的收紧而上升。所以B选项正确
周期性资产可能表现不佳,而收益率曲线预计将继续趋平。所以AC的说法都有误。
这里说 短期利率和通货膨胀是顺周期的,
一般 我们在考试做题的时候,经济周期的分析时, 对于顺周期,逆周期情况 会有不同的影响吗?考试做题不需要纠结?