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小乔 · 2022年10月15日

题目中“short term rate adjust and expected inflation procyclical”

NO.PZ2018091901000051

问题如下:

Neshie Wakuluk is an investment strategist who determines whether any adjustments need to be made to her initial estimates of the respective aggregate economic growth trends based on historical rates of growth for Countries X and Y (both developed markets) and Country Z (a developing market). Exhibit 1 summarizes Wakuluk’s predictions:

Wakuluk assumes short-term interest rates adjust with expected inflation and are procyclical.

Based on Exhibit 1, what capital market effect is Country Z most likely to experience in the short-term?

选项:

A.

Cyclical assets attract investors.

B.

Monetary policy becomes restrictive.

C.

The yield curve steepens substantially.

解释:

B is correct.

Wakuluk’s model predicts that Country Z’s business cycle is currently in the late upswing phase. In the late upswing phase, interest rates are typically rising as monetary policy becomes more restrictive. Cyclical assets may underperform, whereas the yield curve is expected to continue to flatten.

解析:

依据Wakuluk的模型预测,Z国的商业周期目前处于后期上升阶段。在上升阶段的后期,利率通常会随着货币政策的收紧而上升。所以B选项正确

周期性资产可能表现不佳,而收益率曲线预计将继续趋平。所以AC的说法都有误。

这里说 短期利率和通货膨胀是顺周期的,

一般 我们在考试做题的时候,经济周期的分析时, 对于顺周期,逆周期情况 会有不同的影响吗?考试做题不需要纠结?

2 个答案

源_品职助教 · 2024年05月23日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


逆周期对于本题而言没有关系,因为只要是在经济扩张的后期,货币政策就偏于趋紧。通胀顺或者逆周期是不影响判定的。

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源_品职助教 · 2022年10月17日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


本题是没有影响的。但是有的题目,做题的时候是需要看一下的。

因为有的经济变量会同时表现出顺周期和逆周期的特点,然后题目会要求考生进行判断。比如,CME中的通胀。

一般情况下,在通胀已知时候,通常通胀预期就是顺周期的。这是一般情况。

但是如果出现horizon structure这种情况,原版书认为通胀就是逆周期的。

所谓horizon structure,就是长期通胀预期不受经济周期的影响。

而短期通胀预期受经济周期影响波动较大。至于,其中的原因,原版书只写了一句:upward sloping at the trough of the business cycle and

inverted at the peak.其实等于没有解释。建议这里可以当结论记忆,出现horizon structure,通胀就是逆周期,否则就是顺周期。

所以做题目的时候需要看一下。


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Brocolli · 2024年05月22日

如果是逆周期,这道题要怎么考虑?

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