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410140980 · 2022年10月08日

为什么不能用historical 对于option定价

NO.PZ2018122701000086

问题如下:

You are asked to mark to market a book of plain vanilla stock options. The trader is short deep out-of-money options and long at-the-money options. There is a pronounced smile for these options. The trader’s bonus increases as the value of his book increases. Which approach should you use to mark the book?

选项:

A.

Use the implied volatility of at-the-money options because the estimation of the volatility is more reliable.

B.

Use the average of the implied volatilities for the traded options for which you have data because all options should have the same implied volatility with Black-Scholes and you don’t know which one is the right one.

C.

For each option, use the implied volatility of the most similar option traded on the market.

D.

Use the historical volatility because doing so corrects for the pricing mistakes in the option market.

解释:

C is correct.

考点 Volatility Smile

解析 The prices obtained with C are the right ones because they correspond to prices at which you could sell or buy the options.

老师这题两个期权的组合为什么不能用historical data去定价,也是我感觉D也是正确的

1 个答案

DD仔_品职助教 · 2022年10月09日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


因为历史不能代表未来,用历史的波动率来对当前市场情况进行定价是不准确的。

利用相似的option在当前市场上的隐含波动率,肯定要比用历史波动率好。所以选C不选D

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