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椰子皮 · 2022年08月08日

为何不能用carry trade?

* 问题详情,请 查看题干

NO.PZ201601050100001203

问题如下:

Recommend the trading strategy C&M should implement. Justify your response.

选项:

解释:

Given C&M’s research conclusion and the IPS constraints, the currency team should under-hedge Bhatt’s portfolio by selling the US dollar forward against the Indian rupee in a forward contract (or contracts) at no less than a 75% hedge ratio of the portfolio’s USD10,000,000 market value. By under-hedging the portfolio relative to the “neutral” (100% hedge ratio) benchmark, the team seeks to add incremental value on the basis of its view that the US dollar will appreciate against the Indian rupee while maintaining compliance with the IPS.

Since the Indian rupee is assumed to depreciate against the US dollar, a 100% hedge ratio would largely eliminate any alpha opportunity. However, a hedge ratio greater than 75% but less than 100% (as dictated by the plus or minus 25% versus neutral IPS constraint) provides the opportunity to capture currency return in the expected US dollar appreciation against the Indian rupee.

中文解析:

本题中本来担心美元贬值的,应该完全hedge

但现在预期美元升值,是对我们有利的,因此就可以降低hedge比例的情况了,而可以降低到的最低点就是在100%hedge的基础上下降25%,就是75%

1.美元升值(对应印度币贬值),如果用carry trade,不是也可以通过签forward锁定印度币汇率吗?老师课上说可以用CIRP,来执行carry trade

2.另外,请问题目中两国利率差和通胀差保持稳定,怎么和答案联系起来?

4 个答案
已采纳答案

Hertz_品职助教 · 2022年08月08日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


同学你好

这只是一种可能性,外币有升值的可能自然我们投资外币会有更高收益,但不能排除外币有贬值的可能性,贬值的时候呢该策略就会有损失呀,因为无法确定,所以该策略就需要要求汇率稳定。

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努力的时光都是限量版,加油!

椰子皮 · 2022年08月09日

谢谢老师,懂了~~

Hertz_品职助教 · 2022年08月10日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


不客气,继续加油!

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就算太阳没有迎着我们而来,我们正在朝着它而去,加油!

Hertz_品职助教 · 2022年08月08日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


同学你好

刚刚有说过,该策略成立的特点就是需要满足汇率波动越小越好,而且该策略就是为了赚取两国利差,根据汇率变动获取收益不是该策略要做的事情。

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加油吧,让我们一起遇见更好的自己!

椰子皮 · 2022年08月08日

但是如果外币升值,carry trade不是能获得更高的收益吗?

Hertz_品职助教 · 2022年08月08日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


同学你好

1.    本题不适用carry trade的原因:

其实乍一看题干信息感觉会与carry trade联系起来,但另外一些信息也告诉我们其实不是的。

比如说他们相信美元将会升值。我们知道carry trade策略成立的两个必要条件是:两国存在利差;两国的汇率稳定。而美元升值是违反了汇率稳定这一条的。

另外呢,题目说想要抓住alpha,而赚取alpha更多说的是主动管理赚取的收益,所以需要往主动管理方面去思考,而根据自己的判断(美元升值),然后调整策略,赚取收益才是主动管理的做法,所以从这个角度来考虑也不是carry trade,carry trade赚取两国利差,不需要根据对汇率的变动采取策略赚收益。

 

2.    另外题目给到的题干信息并不一定就是解题需要的,有可能就是迷惑我们的,就像这里说的 美国和印度的利差还有通胀差保持稳定,其实对于真正解题用处不大,反而引导们考虑了carry trade策略。而真正的解题题眼在于题干中的最后一句话,即美元要升值

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虽然现在很辛苦,但努力过的感觉真的很好,加油!

椰子皮 · 2022年08月08日

谢谢老师,明白了。不过最后一句,carry trade为何不需要根据对汇率的变动采取策略赚收益?

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