老师，oversold，是指EUR升值还是贬值？

问题如下：

Li Jiang is an international economist operating a subscription website through which she offers financial advice on currency issues to retail investors. One morning she receives four subscriber e-mails seeking guidance.

Subscriber 1 -As a French national now working in the United States, I hold US dollar-denominated assets currently valued at USD 700,000. The USD/EUR exchange rate has been quite volatile and now appears oversold based on historical price trends. With my American job ending soon, I will return to Europe. I want to protect the value of my USD holdings, measured in EUR terms, before I repatriate these funds back to France. To reduce my currency exposure I am going to use currency futures contracts. Can you explain the factors most relevant to implementing this strategy?-

Subscriber 2 -I have observed that many of the overseas markets for Korean export goods are slowing, while the United States is experiencing a rise in exports. Both trends can combine to possibly affect the value of the won (KRW) relative to the US dollar. As a result, I am considering a speculative currency trade on the KRW/USD exchange rate. I also expect the volatility in this exchange rate to increase.-

Subscriber 3 -India has relatively high interest rates compared to the United States and my market view is that this situation is likely to persist. As a retail investor actively trading currencies, I am considering borrowing in USD and converting to the Indian rupee (INR). I then intend to invest these funds in INR-denominated bonds, but without using a currency hedge.-

Subscriber 4 -I was wondering if trading in emerging market currencies provides the more opportunities for superior returns through active management than trading in Developed Market currencies.-

For Subscriber 1, the most significant factor to consider would be:

选项：

A.

margin requirements.

B.

transaction costs of using futures contracts.

C.

different quoting conventions for future contracts.

解释：

A is correct.

Exchange-traded futures contract not only have initial margin requirements, they also have daily mark-to-market and, as a result, can be subject to daily margin calls. Market participants must have sufficient liquidity to meet margin calls, or have their positions involuntarily liquidated by their brokers. Note that the risk of daily margin calls is not a feature of most forwards contracts; nor is initial margin. (However, this is changing among the largest institutional players in FX markets as many forward contracts now come with what are known as Collateral Support Annexes—CSAs—in which margin can be posted. Posting additional margin would typically not be a daily event, however, except in the case of extreme market moves.)

B is incorrect because futures contracts have low transactions costs. C is incorrect because whether the EUR is the price or the base currency in the quote will not affect the hedging process. In fact, on the CME the quote would be the market-standard USD/EUR quote, with the EUR as the base currency.

中文解析：

根据题干信息可知，subscriber 1是一个法国人，现在持有外币美元资产，想使用期货合约（futures）来保护自己的外币资产头寸。

使用期货合约来进行外汇管理的时候，最需要考虑的是保证金的问题，因为期货合约是每日盯市每日结算的，一旦保证金不足，就有可能被强制平仓掉。所以A选项是正确的。

B选项提及的交易成本问题并不是期货合约需要考虑的，期货合约是场内交易的标准化合约，交易成本很低。

C选项提及的报价形式更不是我们使用期货合约需要考虑的问题，属于凑选项的。