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必过50 · 2022年08月05日

老师,帮忙解析一下,谢谢

NO.PZ2022052301000006

问题如下:

Over the next week, Owen and Yang are scheduled to meet with Fillman Associates, Philly’s largest institutional client. Owen mentions that Fillman is more sophisticated than Philly’s typical client. To prepare for the meeting Yang reviews several of Fillman’s annual due diligence forms completed by Owen. One question in particular catches her attention: it asked how the firm’s equity portfolios performed during the 2005–2007 residential property boom and how the equity turnover rates varied from previous years when the markets were more efficient. In part, the response read, “During the residential property boom of 2005–2007 equity trading activity was significantly higher than previous years when the markets were more efficient. Our trading expertise allowed us to consistently harvest profits.”

What behavioral bias is most likely indicated by Philly’s equity turnover rates during the 2005–2007 residential boom?

选项:

A.

Herding

B.

Overconfidence

C.

Recency effect

解释:

Philly’s increased trading activity is indicative of overconfidence. In bubbles investors often exhibit symptoms of overconfidence; overtrading, under-estimation of risks, failure to diversify, and rejection of contradictory information. With overconfidence, investors are more active and trading volume increases, thus lowering their expected profits. Overconfidence and excessive trading are linked to confirmation bias and self-attribution bias as well as hindsight bias and the illusion of knowledge.

题干的意思不太看懂,谢谢

1 个答案

王琛_品职助教 · 2022年08月06日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


1

题干背景是

Owen 和 Yang 都是 P 公司的员工,在接下来的一周里,Owen 和 Yang 被安排与 P 公司最大的机构客户 F 公司会面。Owen 提到,F 公司相比 P 公司典型的客户更专业。

为了准备这次会议,Yang 查看了由 Owen 准备的 F 公司的几份年度尽职调查表。其中一个问题特别吸引了她的注意:F 公司问了两个问题

第一个问题:公司的股权投资组合,在 2005-2007 年房地产市场泡沫期间的表现 (相关背景:美国次贷危机之前,美国房价暴涨)

第二个问题:股权周转率相比前几年市场更有效时的变化 (相关背景:所谓其几年更有效,就是说泡沫期间,投资者更不理性,所以市场相对没有那么有效)

答复的部分内容是:"在 2005-2007 年的房地产市场泡沫中,股票交易量明显高于前些年(那时市场更有效)。我们专业的交易能力,使我们能够持续收获利润。"

题目问:在 2005-2007 年房地产市场泡沫中,P 公司的股票周转率,最可能反映什么行为偏差?

2

虽然引用了一个背景,但是简单说就是牛市来了,我们赚了很多钱,原因就是因为我们很厉害。关键句是第一段最后一句:Our trading expertise allowed us to consistently harvest profits.

所以反映的偏差是过度自信,选 B

不选 A 是因为,虽然羊群效应也可以滋长市场泡沫,但是 P 公司的答复中,并没有特别强调,我们交易量增加,是因为看到其他同业也在买,因为他们买,所以我们买。没有提到这点,所以不选 A

选项 C 可以理解为是 availability,但是 P 公司的答复中,也没有提到,市场泡沫期间,我们查了很多资料,都反映应该买入。也没有提到这点,所以不选 C

3

如果对次贷危机和 2005-2007 的市场泡沫历史不熟悉也没关系,关键是要能找到题眼,即第一段最后一句哈

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努力的时光都是限量版,加油!

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