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daiwin18 · 2022年06月26日

Hindsight也属于cognitive bias,这题答案是否有问题?

NO.PZ2022052301000017

问题如下:

The CIO then suggests updating their stock selection model to incorporate a price momentum factor. Kelly states that she is concerned that momentum will not be effective across all sectors. The CIO counters that because a number of behavioral biases support the persistence of price momentum, they would be foolish not to incorporate this factor. After a brief discussion, the other committee members agree with the CIO and momentum is added to the stock selection model.

Which of the following biases least likely provides behavioral support for the factor being added to the stock selection model?

选项:

A.

Framing

B.

Availability

C.

Hindsight

解释:

Framing bias is a type of cognitive error in which a person answers a question differently based on the way in which it is asked. This behavior is unlikely to explain the persistence of momentum. Regret is a type of hindsight bias that can result in investors purchasing securities after a significant run-up in price because of a fear of not participating. This bias could explain momentum. With availability bias, also referred to as the recency effect, the tendency to recall recent events more vividly can result in investors extrapolating recent price gains into the future. This bias could also explain momentum.

Hindsight也属于cognitive bias,这题答案是否有问题?

2 个答案

王琛_品职助教 · 2022年07月03日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


@daiwin18

但是framing也会导致过度交易,跟momentum有区别吗?

有区别的,咱们在讲行为金融的框架时,提到过 BFMA 和 BFMI,momentum 属于 BFMA 即宏观层面,对应的是整个市场

framing 会导致过度交易,但针对的都是个别投资者,比如客户经理忽悠个别投资者,很难造成整个市场产生 momentum

老师在课上其实也有专门强调这点,也请参考基础班视频 Defining Market Anomalies & Momentum

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虽然现在很辛苦,但努力过的感觉真的很好,加油!

王琛_品职助教 · 2022年06月27日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


1

题目答案没有问题,这道题其实考查的是哪些偏差可以解释 momentum 现象

你看题目的问法,也就是最后一个问句,其实是个定于从句,你把 "the factor being added to the stock selection model" 换成 momentum

问句就变成了:Which of the following biases least likely provides behavioral support for momentum

下列哪个偏差最不可能给 momentum 提供行为指导,即最不可能导致 momentum

2

咱们在介绍 hindsight 时,其实有提到后面的处理方式哈  

偏差本身的结果之一,是高估自己对某项投资结果的预测程度,从而给自己带来虚假的自信

"Overestimate the degree to which they predicted an investment outcome, thus giving them a false sense of confidence."

例如,当一项投资因不可预见的原因而升值时,投资者可能会改写自己的记忆以反映这些原因,可能导致他们承担过多的风险,导致未来的投资错误

"For example, when an investment appreciates for unforeseen reasons, FMPs may rewrite their own memories to reflect those reasons. The hindsight bias may cause FMPs to take on excessive risk, leading to future investment mistakes."

简单说就是会使投资者追涨杀跌,所以会导致 momentum 现象

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就算太阳没有迎着我们而来,我们正在朝着它而去,加油!

Shafengler · 2022年07月01日

确实题目的问题较难理解,从句换动量之后好理解

daiwin18 · 2022年07月02日

但是framing也会导致过度交易,跟momentum有区别吗?