NO.PZ201511190100000205
问题如下：
Indicate which bias is illustrated by Gerber’s focus on the achievement of a 52-week high of CHF 80. Discuss how Gerber could have mitigated its impact.
选项：
解释：
Gerber demonstrated anchoring bias by placing high hope in ABC stock reaching a new 52-week high of CHF 80. Anchoring is an information-processing bias which influences the way people estimate probabilities. When required to estimate a value with unknown magnitude, people generally begin by envisioning some initial default number—an “anchor”—which they then adjust up or down to reflect subsequent information and analysis. Despite setbacks and new information, Gerber did not adjust his view of CHF 80, but continued to cling to this anchor or belief even after reviewing the chief scientist’s report. He perceived new information through a warped lens; thus, the decision making deviated from rational reasoning.
To overcome anchoring bias, Gerber should consciously ask questions that may reveal an anchoring and adjustment bias: “Am I holding on to this stock based on rational analysis, or am I trying to attain a price that I am anchored to, such as the purchase price or a high water mark?” He should look at the basis for his decision to hold ABC to determine if it is anchored to a price target (a new 52-week high) or based on an objective, rational view of the company’s fundamentals. Gerber should have periodically reviewed his decision making process to determine if his analysis of ABC’s prospects was appropriate, focusing more on the company’s fundamentals rather than the price target.
答案说anchoring我可以理解，他锚定的还是能通过实验，股价看涨。但是是否也是过度自信？第一，他一直相信能通过实验；第二，他认为通过了就能创一年新高。
