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Jing,L · 2022年06月02日

Building permits for new private housing units

NO.PZ2021052601000015

问题如下:

Which of the following is most likely to increase after an increase in aggregate real personal income?

选项:

A.Equity prices B.Building permits for new private housing units C.The ratio of consumer installment debt to income

解释:

C is correct. Aggregate real personal income is a coincident indicator of the business cycle, and the ratio of consumer installment debt to income is a lagging indicator. Increases in the ratio of consumer installment debt follow increases in average aggregate income during the typical business cycle.

个人实际收入总额是景气周期的同步指标,而消费者分期付款债务与收入的比率则是滞后性指标。在典型的商业周期中,消费者分期付款债务比率的增加伴随着平均总收入的增加。


请问Building permits for new private housing units 为什么不对呢?这个不也是将来经济会变好的一个指标吗?

现在收入增加---买房子的人变多----Building permits for new private housing units增加,这样理解可以吗?是不是我误解了什么?

1 个答案

笛子_品职助教 · 2022年06月04日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


经济指标有领先滞后的关系。本题问的是,哪个指标是aggregate real personal income的滞后指标。


新屋建设许可不是经济的滞后指标,是经济的领先指标,见强化讲义32页

像房地产这种大宗消费,更多取决于信贷,而非真实的收入,而信贷是经济的领先指标。


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