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13581943293 · 2022年05月21日

老师，怎么从题目中看到price decrease 和reinvestment 会Offset呢？

  1. CFA III
  2. Fixed Income

NO.PZ2018120301000032

问题如下：

Doug, the newly hired chief ­financial officer for the City of Radford, asks the deputy ­financial manager, Hui, to prepare an analysis of the current investment portfolio and the city’s current and future obligations. The city has multiple liabilities of different amounts and maturities relating to the pension fund, infrastructure repairs, and various other obligations.

Hui observes that the current ­fixed-income portfolio is structured to match the duration of each liability. Previously, this structure caused the city to access a line of credit for temporary mismatches resulting from changes in the term structure of interest rates.

Doug asks Hui for different strategies to manage the interest rate risk of the city’s ­fixed-income investment portfolio against one-time shifts in the yield curve. Hui considers two different strategies:

  • Strategy 1: Immunization of the single liabilities using zero-coupon bonds held to maturity.
  • Strategy 2: Immunization of the single liabilities using coupon-bearing bonds while continuously matching duration.
An upward shift in the yield curve on Strategy 2 will most likely result in the:

选项：

A.

price effect cancelling the coupon reinvestment effect.

B.

price effect being greater than the coupon reinvestment effect.

C.

Coupon reinvestment effect being greater than the price effect.

解释：

Correct Answer: A

A is correct. An upward shift in the yield curve reduces the bond’s value but increases the reinvestment rate, with these two effects offsetting one another. The price effect and the coupon reinvestment effect cancel each other out in the case of an upward shift in the yield curve for an immunized liability.

老师，怎么从题目中看到price decrease 和reinvestment 会Offset呢？为什么变动一次还可以Immunization，rate再变一次就不行了呢？ 谢谢

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1 个答案

pzqa015 · 2022年05月22日

嗨，从没放弃的小努力你好：


策略2说， continuously matching duration，那么免疫条件之一mac D=investment horizon成立，所以，Price risk与reinvestment risk会抵消，至于，为什么mac D=investment horizon时，price risk与reinvestment risk会抵消，这是一级固收的知识点，这里做如下讲解：

回顾一下，持有一只债券的收益率是如何计算。

根据P0(1+r)=P1+coupon①这个公式，P0是期初买入债券的价格，P1是现在债券市场价格或者未来可以卖出的价格，r就是持有债券一段时间的投资收益率。如果投资期是一期，没有coupon再投资问题；如果投资期是多期，要考虑coupon的reinvestment问题，比如，投资3期，每期coupon为3，假定期间现金流以ytm再投资，那么根据PV=0，PMT=3，N=3，I/Y=ytm，求解出FV就是上面公式的coupon了，它包含的是coupon和coupon的在投资收益。（这是一级固收的知识点）。

我们分析一下公式①，影响债券投资收益r的因素有两方面：

一是P1，它是债券的卖出价格，收益率曲线一旦变化，债券卖出价格不再确定，这是price risk，用duration衡量，duration越大，price risk越大；

二是coupon，它是持有债券期间的coupon以及coupon再投资收益，一旦收益率曲线变化，coupon确定，但coupon的再投资收益就不确定了（也就是不能假设以ytm再投资了），这是reinvestment risk，用investment horizon衡量，投资期越长，reinvestment risk越大。

收益率发生变动，price risk和reinvestment risk对投资者的影响是相反的，比如考虑收益率曲线上升的情形：

若投资期长，price risk对投资者不利，但reinvestment risk对投资者有利；若投资期短，price risk对投资者有利，但reinvestment risk对投资者不利。所以，一定存在一个条件，这个条件使得price risk与reinvestment risk相互抵消，收益率曲线变动对portfolio value的影响就被控制了，portfolio可以获得确定的return，这样就实现了免疫的初衷。

这个条件就是mac D=investment horizon。

有下面结论：

Mac D＞investment horizon，则price risk＞reinvestment risk

Mac D=investment horizon，则price risk=reinvestment risk

Mac D＜investment horizon，则price risk＜reinvestment risk

所以，单笔现金流负债免疫，我们要让mac D=investment horizon。

一级固收科目用一个具体例子证明

假设期初买入时ytm=10.40%，

第一行是卖出时收益率曲线下降到9.4%，此时的P1=96.481299,coupon(包含再投资收益）=74.512177，total return是170.993476。

第二行是卖出时收益率曲线不变，仍维持10.40%，此时P1=94.073336，coupon(包含再投资收益）=76.835787，total return是170.993476。

第三行是卖出时收益率曲线上升到11.40%，此时P1=91.748833，coupon(包含再投资收益）=79.235183，total return是170.993476。

由于期初买入价格P0不变，total return又一样，所以无论收益率曲线如何变化，持有期收益率r是确定不变的。



至于为什么变动一次可以免疫，利率变动一次后就不能免疫了呢

是因为利率变动会影响资产端债券的mac D，但是负债端由于是单笔现金流，所以不受收益率曲线的影响，所以investment horizon不受收益率曲线变动的影响，故收益率曲线变动一次后，mac D≠investment horizon，所以免疫不在成立，可以用下面的例子解释一下：

比如资产端是3年期的coupon bear bond，coupon=2%，期初ytm=2%，则债券价格为100元。

第一笔现金流的现值为2/(1+2%)=1.96，第二笔现金流的现值为102/(1+2%)^2=98.04

则这只债的mac D=1.96/100*1+(98.04/100)*2=1.9804。假设single负债的剩余到期日就是1.9804，那么此时，这只债是可以duration match的，也就是mac D=investment horizon。

如收益率曲线变化，ytm由2%变为3%，则此时债券价格为2/(1+3%)+102/(1+3%)^2=98.09

第一笔现金流的现值为2/（1+3%）=1.94，第二笔现金流的限制为102/(1+3%）^2=96.14。

此时mac D=1.94/98.09+(96.14/98.09)*2=1.9800。

而由于负债是single liability，无论收益率如何变，剩余到期日（Investment horizon）都是不变的，也就是仍为1.9804，此时，mac D≠ investment horizon，此时，免疫策略就不再成立了。

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努力的时光都是限量版，加油！

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