pz1712 · 2018年03月24日
问题如下图：
选项：
A. 
B. 
C. 
解释：
我注意到 之前有个答案 是这么回答的：
我们观察到债券市场上的收益率曲线收益率由两部分组成，第一部分是预测的利率值，第二部分是债券的风险溢价。
如果收益率曲线表现为上升，那么有三种可能：
1.预期利率和风险溢价同时上升
2.预期利率上升，风险溢价下降，但是预期利率上升的幅度超过风险溢价上升的幅度。
3，预期利率下降，风险溢价上升，但是预期利率下降的幅度小于风险溢价上升的幅度。
预期利率和风险溢价之间没有一定的同步或者非同部变化关系
所以仅仅观察预债券市场的收益率曲线是不能判断未来预测利率变化的方向。
请问里面说的
预期利率 和 风险溢价
NO.PZ2015121810000034 问题如下 analyst, who measures yiela combination of interest rates anpremiums, observes upwarsloping, fault-free government bonnominyielcurve. Whiof the following statements is correct? A.Interest rates must expecteto rise in the future. B.Bonrisk premiums must expecteto rise in the future. C.Expectations relating to the future rection of interest rates are interminate. C is correct.upwarsloping yielcurve mcausea combination of expecterate increases anpositive bonrisk premiums. It malso a combination of expectations thinterest rates will unchangein the future couplewith positive bonrisk premiums. Lastly, upwarsloping yielcurve mactually a reflection of expecterate cuts thare more thoffset the existenof positive bonrisk premiums. So, expectations relating to the future rection of interest rates are interminate. 考点yielcurve解析债券市场的收益率可以简单地划分为两部分，一是risk-free interest rate，二是risk premium。如果收益率曲线表现为上升，那么有三种可能1.risk-free interest rate和risk premium同时上升;2.risk-free interest rate上升，risk premium下降，但是前者上升的幅度超过后者下降的幅度;3.risk-free interest rate下降，risk premium上升，但是前者下降的幅度小于后者上升的幅度。因此仅观察债券市场的收益率曲线不能判断未来预测利率变化的方向。 所以这里non-fault government bonnomininterest rate就是nomininterest rate=reinterest rate+risk premium, 那为什么要强调no fault? 我有点不理解这里的risk premium来自哪里
NO.PZ2015121810000034问题如下analyst, who measures yiela combination of interest rates anpremiums, observes upwarsloping, fault-free government bonnominyielcurve. Whiof the following statements is correct?A.Interest rates must expecteto rise in the future.B.Bonrisk premiums must expecteto rise in the future.C.Expectations relating to the future rection of interest rates are interminate.C is correct.upwarsloping yielcurve mcausea combination of expecterate increases anpositive bonrisk premiums. It malso a combination of expectations thinterest rates will unchangein the future couplewith positive bonrisk premiums. Lastly, upwarsloping yielcurve mactually a reflection of expecterate cuts thare more thoffset the existenof positive bonrisk premiums. So, expectations relating to the future rection of interest rates are interminate. 考点yielcurve解析债券市场的收益率可以简单地划分为两部分，一是risk-free interest rate，二是risk premium。如果收益率曲线表现为上升，那么有三种可能1.risk-free interest rate和risk premium同时上升;2.risk-free interest rate上升，risk premium下降，但是前者上升的幅度超过后者下降的幅度;3.risk-free interest rate下降，risk premium上升，但是前者下降的幅度小于后者上升的幅度。因此仅观察债券市场的收益率曲线不能判断未来预测利率变化的方向。框架图这里涉及Government bon risk premiums are positive anrelateto the consumption of h eing benefits of government bon, 请问如何理解consumption of heing benefits？
NO.PZ2015121810000034 问题如下 analyst, who measures yiela combination of interest rates anpremiums, observes upwarsloping, fault-free government bonnominyielcurve. Whiof the following statements is correct? A.Interest rates must expecteto rise in the future. B.Bonrisk premiums must expecteto rise in the future. C.Expectations relating to the future rection of interest rates are interminate. C is correct.upwarsloping yielcurve mcausea combination of expecterate increases anpositive bonrisk premiums. It malso a combination of expectations thinterest rates will unchangein the future couplewith positive bonrisk premiums. Lastly, upwarsloping yielcurve mactually a reflection of expecterate cuts thare more thoffset the existenof positive bonrisk premiums. So, expectations relating to the future rection of interest rates are interminate. 考点yielcurve解析债券市场的收益率可以简单地划分为两部分，一是risk-free interest rate，二是risk premium。如果收益率曲线表现为上升，那么有三种可能1.risk-free interest rate和risk premium同时上升;2.risk-free interest rate上升，risk premium下降，但是前者上升的幅度超过后者下降的幅度;3.risk-free interest rate下降，risk premium上升，但是前者下降的幅度小于后者上升的幅度。因此仅观察债券市场的收益率曲线不能判断未来预测利率变化的方向。 题干说“who measures yiela combination of interest rates anpremiums”，这句话本身是知识点吗，还是仅仅是在描述这道题目主人公measure yiel方法而已？在讲到yielcurve on nominfault-free bon，老师和讲义上都没提到yielcurve和premium之间的关联。
NO.PZ2015121810000034 这里说的直接就是“interest rates”，而不是直接说清楚是reinterest rate，这样无法判断究竟是要对比总的interest rate ,还是只看reinterest rate。考试遇到的话如何处理，只要出现interest rate就直接默认是real的吗？（因为如果认为是总的interest rate的话，自然说了upwarsloping的话，未来的expecte总interest rate还是可以知道是上涨的，直接选A就好了）
NO.PZ2015121810000034 Bonrisk premiums must expecteto rise in the future. Expectations relating to the future rection of interest rates are interminate. C is correct. upwarsloping yielcurve mcausea combination of expecterate increases anpositive bonrisk premiums. It malso a combination of expectations thinterest rates will unchangein the future couplewith positive bonrisk premiums. Lastly, upwarsloping yielcurve mactually a reflection of expecterate cuts thare more thoffset the existenof positive bonrisk premiums. So, expectations relating to the future rection of interest rates are interminate. 考点yielcurve 解析 债券市场的收益率可以简单地划分为两部分，一是risk-free interest rate，二是risk premium。如果收益率曲线表现为上升，那么有三种可能 1.risk-free interest rate和risk premium同时上升; 2.risk-free interest rate上升，risk premium下降，但是前者上升的幅度超过后者下降的幅度; 3.risk-free interest rate下降，risk premium上升，但是前者下降的幅度小于后者上升的幅度。 因此仅观察债券市场的收益率曲线不能判断未来预测利率变化的方向。 一般收益率向上倾斜不是未来利率上涨吗？跟风险补偿有什么关系
