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蛋黄也酥酥 · 2022年05月07日

Due to recent monetary tightening by the Riksbank (the Swedish central bank) forward points for the SEK/EUR rate have swung to a premium.

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NO.PZ201601050100000403

问题如下:

3. Given the recent movement in the forward premium for the SEK/EUR rate, Björk can expect that the hedge will experience higher:

选项:

A.

basis risk.

B.

roll yield.

C.

premia income.

解释:

B is correct.

To hedge the EUR-denominated assets Björk will be selling forward contracts on the SEK/EUR cross rate. A higher forward premium will result in higher roll return as Björk is selling the EUR forward at a higher all-in forward rate, and closing out the contract at a lower rate (all else equal), given that the forward curve is in contango.

A is incorrect because Björk is hedging EUR-denominated assets with a EUR-denominated forward contract. While it is true that the gap between spot and forward rates will be higher the higher the interest rate differential between countries, this gap (basis) converges to zero near maturity date, when the forward contracts would be rolled.

C is incorrect because forward contracts do not generate premia income; writing options does.

中文解析:

这道题目从roll yield的公式来判断。

首先明确一下持有的是外币EUR的资产,因此是short forward on SEK/EUR。此时roll yield的计算式子是F-S/S。

而forward premium指的是F>S,所以根据roll yield的公式可知,roll yield为正,即有更高的roll yield的。

C选项指的是期权费,本题不涉及,A选项的基差风险本题也不涉及。

Due to recent monetary tightening by the Riksbank (the Swedish central bank) forward points for the SEK/EUR rate have swung to a premium.

这句话我的理解是,Sek会贬值,EUR会升值。所以我们long forward on eur会赚。不太理解为什么short方的profit是F-S/S, 当FC升值时反而short方赚钱。作为short方难道不是对FC看跌吗?

2 个答案

Hertz_品职助教 · 2022年05月09日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


同学你好

的确是这样,在往年历年真题(之前笔考时代公布真题),以及平时的题目的练习中目前接触的情景都是持有外币资产的情况,在这种情况下肯定是担心外币贬值,所以short forward on 外币。

但是也保不准协会出来一个拥有一笔外币负债,因此担心外币升值,所以long forward的情况。保险起见还是要看题目,毕竟不论怎样题干总是要看的嘛,而且这个信息在题干中也是很容易判断的。

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Hertz_品职助教 · 2022年05月09日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


同学你好~

1.     由题干第三段的开头第一句可知,拥有的是外币EUR的资产敞口。持有外币资产,担心外币贬值,所以是short forward on SEK/EUR(注意不是同学说的的long forward on EUR)。

2.     Due to recent monetary tightening by the Riksbank (the Swedish central bank) forward points for the SEK/EUR rate have swung to a premium.这句话的意思是:由于瑞典央行(Riksbank)最近收紧货币政策,瑞典克朗/欧元远期汇率已转向溢价,直白说就是SEK/EUR的远期汇率F会上升。

3.     然后看一下选项,B选项中的roll yield的计算公式(short forward position下),公式为F-S/S。而上面2中提到的更高的F,根据公式可知,必然会有更高的roll yield。

4.     另外注意,整体的背景是外汇管理,管理外汇风险敞口不是赚钱。所以持有外币资产,必然要short forward on 外币。并不能因为外币升值了,就要long forward on 外币来赚钱。Short forward on 外币,是锁定了将来将外币转换为本币的汇率,并不是看跌外币。

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