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玛卡巴卡 · 2021年08月13日

A选项

NO.PZ2018091901000054

问题如下:

Neshie Wakuluk is an investment strategist. Exhibit 1 summarizes Wakuluk’s predictions:

Wakuluk decides to focus on Country Y. Wakuluk makes the following observations:

Observation 3 The current yield curve for Country Y suggests that the business cycle is in the slowdown phase, with bond yields starting to reflect contractionary conditions.

Based on Observation 3, Wakuluk most likely expects Country Y’s yield curve in the near term to:

选项:

A.

invert.

B.

flatten.

C.

steepen

解释:

C is correct.

The current yield curve for Country Y suggests that the business cycle is in the slowdown phase (curve is flat to inverted), with bond yields starting to reflect contractionary conditions (i.e., bond yields are declining). The curve will most likely steepen near term, consistent with the transition to the contractionary phase of the business cycle, and be the steepest on the cusp of the initial recovery phase.

解析:

Y国目前的收益率曲线表明,商业周期正处于放缓阶段(曲线从平向反方向),债券收益率开始反映出紧缩的状况(债券收益率正在下降)。这条曲线在短期内很可能会变陡,与商业周期向收缩阶段的过渡保持一致,并在初始复苏阶段的尖端变得最陡。

所以只有C选项正确。

老师在基础课讲到这张图,slowdown是inverted,through是steepen,为什么这里选steepen呢?inverted如何理解呢

2 个答案
已采纳答案

源_品职助教 · 2021年08月13日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


这题说的是依据Based on Observation 3做出结论

 Observation 3说的是Y过当前是SLOWDOWN,但是收益率曲线要开始反映contractionary conditions了。

然后吐血你的截图上老师这里写的是THROUGH即 contraction阶段就是STEEPEN,所以不矛盾。

这里主要要搞清楚,题目其实问的是contractionary而非SLOWDOWN。(Country Y’s yield curve in the near term to,当前SLOWDOWN,接下来会怎么样)

INVERTED说的是在SLOWN时期,短期利率继续上涨,达到顶点,但是长期政府债的收益率下降,那么收益率曲线形状就倒挂了。


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就算太阳没有迎着我们而来,我们正在朝着它而去,加油!

三级冲冲 · 2021年10月23日

这个解答OK

源_品职助教 · 2021年10月24日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


谢谢肯定


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就算太阳没有迎着我们而来,我们正在朝着它而去,加油!

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