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丁洁Amy · 2021年07月11日

为何用最小二乘法结果不对呢

* 问题详情,请 查看题干

NO.PZ201601200500000801

问题如下:

1. What is the optimal service life for Laroche Livery’s fleet of vans?

选项:

A.

Two years.

B.

Three years.

C.

Four years.

解释:

B is correct.

The way to solve the problem is to calculate the equivalent annual annuity and choose the service life with the lowest annual cost. For a two-year service life, the NPV is

NPV=40000+120001.101+150001.102+200001.102=46776.86NPV=-40000+\frac{-12000}{1.10^1}+\frac{-15000}{1.10^2}+\frac{20000}{1.10^2}=-46776.86

The EAA (PV = –46,776.86, N = 2, and i = 10%) is –26,952.38.

For a three-year service life, the NPV is

NPV=40000+120001.101+150001.102+200001.103+170001.103\mathrm{NPV}=-40000+\frac{-12000}{1.10^1}+\frac{-15000}{1.10^2}+\frac{-20000}{1.10^3}+\frac{17000}{1.10^3}

=-65559.73

The EAA (PV = –65,559.73, N = 3, and i = 10%) is –26,362.54.

For a four-year service life, the NPV is

NPV=40000+120001.101+150001.102+200001.103+250001.104+120001.104\mathrm{NPV}=-40000+\frac{-12000}{1.10^1}+\frac{-15000}{1.10^2}+\frac{-20000}{1.10^3}+\frac{-25000}{1.10^4}+\frac{12000}{1.10^4}

=-87211.26

The EAA (PV = –87,211.26, N = 4, and i = 10%) is –27,512.61.

The three-year service life has the lowest annual cost. Laroche should replace the vans every three years.

老师好,


这道题我显示算出了2、3、4年的NPV,分别是-46.78、-65.56、-82.21,然后用最小二乘法,我在比较3、4年的时候:


3年的:-65.56*4=-262.24

4年的:-82.21*3=-246.63


这样看3年的成本更大,所以我选了C就是4年期的。

请问老师我哪里做错了?谢谢

1 个答案
已采纳答案

王琛_品职助教 · 2021年07月12日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


首先,在评估周期不同的互斥项目时,我们学过两种方法:等效年金法和最小公倍数法,并没有学过最小二乘法哈

其次,同学可能误解了最小公倍数法的原理。这个方法并不是直接用单个项目的 NPV,乘以最小公倍数哈,而是要先把各期的现金流画出来

而其繁琐的地方,就在于项目期末和期初重叠的时间点,现金流涉及多项:既涉及前一个项目末期的现金流入,又涉及后一个项目初期的现金流出

举例说明哈,下面的截图,取自原版书 P39,是要先把各期现金流计算出来,再计算一个总的 NPV。关键的时间点,就是期初和期末重叠的时间点的现金流,我用红框标注了

----------------------------------------------
努力的时光都是限量版,加油!

丁洁Amy · 2021年07月12日

老师讲的很清楚,感谢,我的确弄错了。谢谢纠正。

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NO.PZ201601200500000801 问题如下 The capitbueting committee for Laroche Instries is meeting. Laroche is a North Americconglomerate thhsevervisions. One of these visions, Laroche Livery, operates a large fleet of vans. Laroche’s management is evaluating whether it is optimto operate new vans for two, three, or four years before replacing them. The managers have estimatethe investment outlay, annuafter-toperating expenses, anafter-tsalvage cash flows for eaof the servilives. Because revenues ansome operating costs are unaffectethe choiof servilife, they were ignorein the analysis. Laroche Livery’s opportunity cost of fun is 10 percent. The following table gives the cash flows in thousan of Canallars (C$).SchoemProcts, another vision of Laroche, hevaluateseverinvestment projects annow must choose the subset of them thfits within its C$40 million capitbuet. The outlays anNPVs for the six projects are given below. Schoemcannot buy fractionprojects, anmust buy all or none of a project. The currenamounts are in millions of Canallars. Schoemwants to termine whisubset of the six projects is optimal.A finproposcomes from the vision Society Services, whihinvestment opportunity with a reoption to invest further if contions warrant.The crucitails are follows: The originproject: •outlof C$190 million time zero. •Cash flows of C$40 million per yefor Years 1–10 if manis \"high.\" •Cash flows of C$20 million per yefor Years 1–10 if manis \"low.\" Aitioncash flows with the optionexpansion project: •outlof C$190 million time one. •Cash flows of C$40 million per yefor Years 2–10 if manis \"high.\" •Cash flows of C$20 million per yefor Years 2–10 if manis \"low.\" Whether manis \"high\" or \"low\" in Years 1–10 will revealering the first year. The probability of \"high\" manis 0.50, anthe probability of \"low\" manis 0.50. The option to make the expansion investment pen on making the initiinvestment. If the initiinvestment is not ma, the option to expanes not exist. The requirerate of return is 10 percent.Society Services wants to evaluate its investment alternatives.The internautor for Laroche Instries hma seversuggestions for improving capitbueting processes the company. The internautor’s suggestions are follows:Suggestion 1\"In orr to put all capitbueting proposals on equfooting, the projects shoulall use the risk-free rate for the requirerate of return.\"Suggestion 2\"Because you cannot exercise both of them, you shoulnot permit a given projeto have both abannment option anexpansion/growth option.\"Suggestion 3\"When rationing capital, it is better to choose the portfolio of investments thmaximizes the company NPV ththe portfolio thmaximizes the company IRR.\"Suggestion 4\"Projebetshoulusefor establishing the requirerate of return whenever the project’s beta is fferent from the company’s beta.\"1. Whis the optimservilife for Laroche Livery’s fleet of vans? A.Two years. B.Three years. C.Four years. B is correct.The wto solve the problem is to calculate the equivalent annuannuity anchoose the servilife with the lowest annucost. For a two-yeservilife, the NPV isNPV=−40000+−120001.101+−150001.102+200001.102=−46776.86NPV=-40000+\frac{-12000}{1.10^1}+\frac{-15000}{1.10^2}+\frac{20000}{1.10^2}=-46776.86NPV=−40000+1.101−12000​+1.102−15000​+1.10220000​=−46776.86The E(PV = –46,776.86, N = 2, ani = 10%) is –26,952.38.For a three-yeservilife, the NPV isNPV=−40000+−120001.101+−150001.102+−200001.103+170001.103\mathrm{NPV}=-40000+\frac{-12000}{1.10^1}+\frac{-15000}{1.10^2}+\frac{-20000}{1.10^3}+\frac{17000}{1.10^3}NPV=−40000+1.101−12000​+1.102−15000​+1.103−20000​+1.10317000​=-65559.73The E(PV = –65,559.73, N = 3, ani = 10%) is –26,362.54.For a four-yeservilife, the NPV isNPV=−40000+−120001.101+−150001.102+−200001.103+−250001.104+120001.104\mathrm{NPV}=-40000+\frac{-12000}{1.10^1}+\frac{-15000}{1.10^2}+\frac{-20000}{1.10^3}+\frac{-25000}{1.10^4}+\frac{12000}{1.10^4}NPV=−40000+1.101−12000​+1.102−15000​+1.103−20000​+1.104−25000​+1.10412000​=-87211.26The E(PV = –87,211.26, N = 4, ani = 10%) is –27,512.61.The three-yeservilife hthe lowest annucost. Laroche shoulreplathe vans every three years. 老师,我的过程和答案全部一样,算出来PV是一样的,带进去算EAA的时候,怎么都算不出来答案的数,比如第4年的PMT我的计算结果是25011.46(N=4, I/Y=10, FV=0, PV=-87211.26)您看是我过程出问题了还是计算器出问题了同理,其他两个我也算不出答案给的PMT

2022-11-02 09:24 3 · 回答

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2022-06-14 02:21 1 · 回答

NO.PZ201601200500000801 计算EAA时,都默认FV=0吗?

2022-02-09 16:00 1 · 回答

NO.PZ201601200500000801 你好 这个题我按答案按的计算器 但是结果都是正的 想问下问题出在哪里?

2021-11-30 10:18 2 · 回答

NO.PZ201601200500000801 老师好 这题 是不是计算器里PV 应该打入正的 不是负的 (比如正的46,776.86), 因为 NPV 和E的符号一致。 PV 键和PMT 在计算器第三例 是符号相反, 如果这题里输入负的NPV, 算出的PMT 或EAA会是正的 而不是负的 (cost). 谢谢。

2021-11-25 08:07 1 · 回答