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annewang · 2021年04月05日

请问答案中的naïve extrapolation和loyalty effect 是今年的考点吗？

  1. CFA III
  2. 个人IPS

NO.PZ2018091705000060

问题如下：

John C. Hill, sole owner of JCH Equipment Leasing Co. (JCH), is evaluating a future sale of his company and approaches Mary Keller, a wealth adviser, for advice.

Hill refers his friend, Richard Morrison, the former CEO of Masury Bridge and Iron (MBI), to Keller to discuss his wealth goals. Keller meets with Morrison and gathers the following information:

• Richard Morrison is 50 years old and his spouse, Meredith, is 49 years old. Both are healthy and both expect to live at least an additional 40 years.

• The Morrisons have a 20-year-old son and would like to transfer 5% of their wealth to him during their lifetime.

• Richard Morrison retired two years ago and intends to spend his time serving on philanthropic boards; Meredith does not work.

• The Morrisons own 2 million shares of MBI, currently valued at $50 million, representing approximately 90% of their wealth.

• MBI is a large, publicly traded company, and the Morrisons’ position equals approximately 1% of the total market capitalization.

• The Morrison family depends on dividends from MBI for their day-to-day living expenses.

• The cost basis of their MBI shares is close to zero, and the capital gains tax rate is 15%.

• Richard Morrison is loyal to MBI, follows the stock closely, believes he knows the company better than other investors, and expects the company to continue to be a good investment in the future just like it has been in the past.

• The Morrisons’ key objective is to maintain their current standard of living during retirement.

Explain three emotional biases that may affect Richard Morrison’s decision making.

解释：

A number of emotional biases can negatively affect the decision-making of holders of concentrated positions. Specifically, Richard Morrison’s decision to diversify may be negatively affected by loyalty effects, overconfidence/familiarity, and status quo/naïve extrapolation of past returns. The facts indicate that Mr. Morrison is extremely loyal to MBI (loyalty effect); he believes he knows the company better than other investors (overconfidence/familiarity); and he expects the company to continue to be a good investment as it has been in the past (status quo/naïve extrapolation of past returns).

问题如上 感觉这两个概念没怎么见过呢

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王暄_品职助教 · 2021年04月06日

是考点，是R31中说明投资者为何不愿意去分散化集中资产的心理系因素，基础班讲义如下：

annewang · 2021年04月15日

老师，请问这道题问什么不答Endowment bias呢？而且我看您发的讲义图片，此处endowment bias含义的重点跟BF里的不太一样呢，难道两门课里定义要分开记忆？

王暄_品职助教 · 2021年04月15日

老师，请问这道题问什么不答Endowment bias呢？而且我看您发的讲义图片，此处endowment bias含义的重点跟BF里的不太一样呢，难道两门课里定义要分开记忆？


首先BF里的endowment bias解释如下：

Endowment bias is an emotional bias in which people value an asset more when they hold rights to it than when they do not.

禀赋偏差（Endowment Bias）是指人们会对那些自己拥有的资产给予了更高的估值评价相较于那些不属于自己的资产。所有权“赠予”（endows）了资产一定附属价值；因此市场参与者会非理性地继续持有他们已经持有的证券。这一点在“继承遗产”上体现的尤为明显，因为这类资产经常被投资者视作家族荣耀或者寄予了其对于亲人的缅怀之情。


而在个人IPS其实意思相似：均为一个人对自己所拥有的资产赋予更高的价值（比买方愿意出的价格要高）


这里之所以不写Enodwment bias只因为Endowment bias更倾向于继承来的财产。


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NO.PZ2018091705000060 John Hill, sole owner of JEquipment Leasing Co. (JCH), is evaluating a future sale of his company anapproaches Mary Keller, a wealth aiser, for aice. Hill refers his frien RicharMorrison, the former CEO of Masury Brie anIron (MBI), to Keller to scuss his wealth goals. Keller meets with Morrison angathers the following information: • RicharMorrison is 50 years olanhis spouse, Mereth, is 49 years ol Both are healthy anboth expeto live least aition40 years. • The Morrisons have a 20-year-olson anwoullike to transfer 5% of their wealth to him ring their lifetime. • RicharMorrison retiretwo years ago aninten to spenhis time serving on philanthropic boar; Mereth es not work. • The Morrisons own 2 million shares of MBI, currently value$50 million, representing approximately 90% of their wealth. • Mis a large, publicly tracompany, anthe Morrisons’ position equals approximately 1% of the totmarket capitalization. • The Morrison family pen on vin from Mfor their y-to-y living expenses. • The cost basis of their Mshares is close to zero, anthe capitgains trate is 15%. • RicharMorrison is loyto MBI, follows the stoclosely, believes he knows the company better thother investors, anexpects the company to continue to a gooinvestment in the future just like it hbeen in the past. • The Morrisons’ key objective is to maintain their current stanrof living ring retirement. Explain three emotionbiases thmaffeRicharMorrison’s cision making. A number of emotionbiases cnegatively affethe cision-making of holrs of concentratepositions. Specifically, RicharMorrison’s cision to versify mnegatively affecteloyalty effects, overconfince/familiarity, anstatus quo/naïve extrapolation of past returns. The facts incate thMr. Morrison is extremely loyto M(loyalty effect); he believes he knows the company better thother investors (overconfince/familiarity); anhe expects the company to continue to a gooinvestment it hbeen in the past (status quo/naïve extrapolation of past returns). 老师，RicharMorrison is loyto MBI, follows the stoclosely, believes he knows the company better thother investors, anexpects the company to continue to a gooinvestment in the future just like it hbeen in the past. 这可不可以理解为representative basis呢?

2021-11-02 10:35 1 · 回答

NO.PZ2018091705000060 A number of emotionbiases cnegatively affethe cision-making of holrs of concentratepositions. Specifically, RicharMorrison’s cision to versify mnegatively affecteloyalty effects, overconfince/familiarity, anstatus quo/naïve extrapolation of past returns. The facts incate thMr. Morrison is extremely loyto M(loyalty effect); he believes he knows the company better thother investors (overconfince/familiarity); anhe expects the company to continue to a gooinvestment it hbeen in the past (status quo/naïve extrapolation of past returns). 这个为啥不是halo bias就是那个光环效应？因为他觉得这公司好

2021-10-15 23:19 1 · 回答

NO.PZ2018091705000060 John Hill, sole owner of JEquipment Leasing Co. (JCH), is evaluating a future sale of his company anapproaches Mary Keller, a wealth aiser, for aice. Hill refers his frien RicharMorrison, the former CEO of Masury Brie anIron (MBI), to Keller to scuss his wealth goals. Keller meets with Morrison angathers the following information: • RicharMorrison is 50 years olanhis spouse, Mereth, is 49 years ol Both are healthy anboth expeto live least aition40 years. • The Morrisons have a 20-year-olson anwoullike to transfer 5% of their wealth to him ring their lifetime. • RicharMorrison retiretwo years ago aninten to spenhis time serving on philanthropic boar; Mereth es not work. • The Morrisons own 2 million shares of MBI, currently value$50 million, representing approximately 90% of their wealth. • Mis a large, publicly tracompany, anthe Morrisons’ position equals approximately 1% of the totmarket capitalization. • The Morrison family pen on vin from Mfor their y-to-y living expenses. • The cost basis of their Mshares is close to zero, anthe capitgains trate is 15%. • RicharMorrison is loyto MBI, follows the stoclosely, believes he knows the company better thother investors, anexpects the company to continue to a gooinvestment in the future just like it hbeen in the past. • The Morrisons’ key objective is to maintain their current stanrof living ring retirement. Explain three emotionbiases thmaffeRicharMorrison’s cision making. A number of emotionbiases cnegatively affethe cision-making of holrs of concentratepositions. Specifically, RicharMorrison’s cision to versify mnegatively affecteloyalty effects, overconfince/familiarity, anstatus quo/naïve extrapolation of past returns. The facts incate thMr. Morrison is extremely loyto M(loyalty effect); he believes he knows the company better thother investors (overconfince/familiarity); anhe expects the company to continue to a gooinvestment it hbeen in the past (status quo/naïve extrapolation of past returns). 没有Availability bias吗？因为熟悉MBI所以认为会一直好下去。

2021-07-07 22:35 1 · 回答

John Hill, sole owner of JEquipment Leasing Co. (JCH), is evaluating a future sale of his company anapproaches Mary Keller, a wealth aiser, for aice. Hill refers his frien RicharMorrison, the former CEO of Masury Brie anIron (MBI), to Keller to scuss his wealth goals. Keller meets with Morrison angathers the following information: • RicharMorrison is 50 years olanhis spouse, Mereth, is 49 years ol Both are healthy anboth expeto live least aition40 years. • The Morrisons have a 20-year-olson anwoullike to transfer 5% of their wealth to him ring their lifetime. • RicharMorrison retiretwo years ago aninten to spenhis time serving on philanthropic boar; Mereth es not work. • The Morrisons own 2 million shares of MBI, currently value$50 million, representing approximately 90% of their wealth. • Mis a large, publicly tracompany, anthe Morrisons’ position equals approximately 1% of the totmarket capitalization. • The Morrison family pen on vin from Mfor their y-to-y living expenses. • The cost basis of their Mshares is close to zero, anthe capitgains trate is 15%. • RicharMorrison is loyto MBI, follows the stoclosely, believes he knows the company better thother investors, anexpects the company to continue to a gooinvestment in the future just like it hbeen in the past. • The Morrisons’ key objective is to maintain their current stanrof living ring retirement. Explain three emotionbiases thmaffeRicharMorrison’s cision making. A number of emotionbiases cnegatively affethe cision-making of holrs of concentratepositions. Specifically, RicharMorrison’s cision to versify mnegatively affecteloyalty effects, overconfince/familiarity, anstatus quo/naïve extrapolation of past returns. The facts incate thMr. Morrison is extremely loyto M(loyalty effect); he believes he knows the company better thother investors (overconfince/familiarity); anhe expects the company to continue to a gooinvestment it hbeen in the past (status quo/naïve extrapolation of past returns). 请问从哪句可以看出loyalty?

2021-01-24 12:27 1 · 回答