NO.PZ2018091901000050
问题如下：
Neshie Wakuluk is an investment strategist who determines whether any adjustments need to be made to her initial estimates of the respective aggregate economic growth trends based on historical rates of growth for Countries X and Y (both developed markets) and Country Z (a developing market). Exhibit 1 summarizes Wakuluk’s predictions:
Wakuluk assumes short-term interest rates adjust with expected inflation and are procyclical.
Based on Exhibit 1 and Wakuluk’s assumptions about short-term rates and expected inflation, short-term rates in Country X are most likely to be:
选项：
A.low and bottoming.
B.approaching a peak.
above average and rising.
解释：
A is correct.
Country X is predicted to be in the initial recovery phase of the business cycle, which suggests short-term (money market) rates are low or bottoming. Inflation is procyclical. It accelerates in the later stages of the business cycle when the output gap has closed, and it decelerates when a large output gap puts downward pressure on wages and prices, which often happens during a recession or the early years afterward. As long as short-term interest rates adjust with expected inflation, cash is essentially a zero-duration, inflation protected asset that earns a floating real rate, which is typically procyclical. Wakuluk assumes short-term interest rates adjust with expected inflation and are procyclical. Thus, short-term rates are most likely to be low and bottoming if Country X is in the initial recovery phase of the business cycle.
解析：
X国预计将处于商业周期的初步复苏阶段，这意味着短期(货币市场)利率处于低位或见底。通货膨胀是顺周期。在商业周期的后期，当产出缺口缩小时，经济增长会加速;当巨大的产出缺口对工资和价格构成下行压力时，经济增长会减速，而这种情况通常发生在经济衰退或衰退后的最初几年。
只要短期利率随着预期的通货膨胀进行调整，现金基本上就是一种零存续期、受通货膨胀保护的资产，因为它的实际利率是浮动的，还是顺周期的。Wakuluk假设短期利率会随着预期的通货膨胀而调整，并且是顺周期的。如果X国正处于商业周期的初步复苏阶段，那么短期利率最有可能处于低位和底部。所以A选项正确。
按照讲义和答案的说法，我的理解是这里的持有现金其实是有一定利率回报的，而且这个利率回报随着通胀的增长而增加，所以在通胀高的时候持有现金是合适的，而这种处在经济繁荣周期持有的资产回报大的情况可以称为顺周期的资产。这种理解是否有问题？
此外，”我们平日里经常看到“通胀高的时候要积极投资，持有现金不好”这一观点是否和这个知识点有矛盾？
