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jianghaiyang · 2021年03月28日

请问这道题的答案是不是错了?

NO.PZ2018091901000051

问题如下:

Neshie Wakuluk is an investment strategist who determines whether any adjustments need to be made to her initial estimates of the respective aggregate economic growth trends based on historical rates of growth for Countries X and Y (both developed markets) and Country Z (a developing market). Exhibit 1 summarizes Wakuluk’s predictions:

Wakuluk assumes short-term interest rates adjust with expected inflation and are procyclical.

Based on Exhibit 1, what capital market effect is Country Z most likely to experience in the short-term?

选项:

A.

Cyclical assets attract investors.

B.

Monetary policy becomes restrictive.

C.

The yield curve steepens substantially.

解释:

B is correct.

Wakuluk’s model predicts that Country Z’s business cycle is currently in the late upswing phase. In the late upswing phase, interest rates are typically rising as monetary policy becomes more restrictive. Cyclical assets may underperform, whereas the yield curve is expected to continue to flatten.

解析:

依据Wakuluk的模型预测,Z国的商业周期目前处于后期上升阶段。在上升阶段的后期,利率通常会随着货币政策的收紧而上升。所以B选项正确

周期性资产可能表现不佳,而收益率曲线预计将继续趋平。所以AC的说法都有误。

late expansion阶段才是policy 开始restrict的吧?而contraction阶段是yield curve 开始steepen吧?

2 个答案

源_品职助教 · 2021年11月04日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


CONTRACTION的时候,利率是在下降的,那么债券的折现率也是下降的。

所以这个时候债券的价格比较低,预期未来会上涨。

所以这个时候可以买债券。

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就算太阳没有迎着我们而来,我们正在朝着它而去,加油!

源_品职助教 · 2021年03月29日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


同学,本题问的是Z国,Z处于late upswing phase,也就是同学说的late expansion,所以B正确。

而contraction阶段是yield curve steepens substantially,但是是Y国而非Z国在contraction。所以C不选。

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虽然现在很辛苦,但努力过的感觉真的很好,加油!

Yaq7 · 2021年11月04日

老师 为什么contraction时 bond可以买呀

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